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Financial Dollarization and Debt Deflation under a Currency Board

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Author Info

  • Sebastian Galiani

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres)

  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Ernesto Schargrodsky

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

Abstract

In the late currency board years, Argentina faced a real exchange rate adjustment through price deflation amidst growing devaluation expectations. Using a firm-level panel database to analyze the incidence of these factors on the currency composition of private debt and on firms’ performance, we find that widespread debt dollarization showed no relationship with the firms’ production mix or the ever-changing probability of a nominal devaluation. While relative price changes favored export-oriented firms with the expected impact on sales, earnings and investment, increases in devaluation expectations elicited only a marginal differential response in investment from more financially dollarized firms. Our findings provide support to two criticisms faced by the Argentine currency board in recent years, namely, that by fueling beliefs in an implicit guarantee it stimulated across-the-board debt dollarization, and that it could not fully isolate the economy from real shocks, as the feared balance sheet effect was replaced by a gradual but equally deleterious debt deflation effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia in its series Working Papers with number 64.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision: Nov 2003
Publication status: Published in Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 4, 2003, pages 340-367
Handle: RePEc:sad:wpaper:64

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Keywords: finance; dollarization; debt deflation; currency board;

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References

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  1. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2009. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," Economics Working Papers we098374, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  2. Galiani, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schargrodsky, Ernesto, 2003. "Financial dollarization and debt deflation under a currency board," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 340-367, December.
  3. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6412m5b7, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Christian Broda & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Endogenous deposit dollarization," Staff Reports 160, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Augusto de la Torre & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina´s Currency Board," Business School Working Papers catorce, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  12. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
  13. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  14. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
  15. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
  16. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
  17. Federico Sturzenegger & Ernesto Schargrodsky & Sebastian Galiani & Paul Gertler, 2003. "The Costs and Benefits of Privatization in Argentina: A Microeconomic Analysis," Research Department Publications 3148, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  18. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  19. Alberto Chong & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, 2004. "Privatización en México," Research Department Publications 4374, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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