Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
AbstractThe determination of the causal pattern among inflation, money growth, and exchange rate has important implications for policymakers regarding appropriate stabilization policies in developing economies. Using Congolese data where the pace of broad money growth and hyperinflation (23,760% annual change) reached record levels in early 1990s, we use single−equation multivariate autoregressive models with the optimal lag selected using Hsiaofs approach to Granger causality. Results indicate feedback causality between inflation and money growth on one side, and unidirectional Granger causality from money growth to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to inflation on the other. These results suggest that the over−riding goal of disinflation needs to be accomplished initially by exchange rate stabilization, followed by a direct inflation targeting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0511023.
Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 22 Nov 2005
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Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12. Inflation in the DR Congo
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Congo Inflation Hsiao's version of Granger Causality;
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-Claude Maswana, 2005. "Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(19), pages 1-10.
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-12-01 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-12-01 (Monetary Economics)
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