Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability
AbstractThe robustness analysis presented in this paper is a part of the work done to develop and verify the properties of a stochastic macroeconomic-demographic growth model focused on social security (MacKellar and Ermolieva 1999). The first set of experiments on robustness has been reported by Westlund et al. (1999). Here we study the sensitivity of model solutions with respect to structural changes in exogenous variables and time varying structural interactions. The parameters varied are the productivity of capital and labor force participation rates. The sensitivity analysis focuses on three macroeconomic indices of the stability of the old-age support system: current balance and assets of the private, defined-contribution, fully-funded pension system and balance of the public, defined-benefit, Pay As You Go (PAYG) pension system. Robustness at the microeconomic level, construed as the stability of pensioners' and workers' after-tax income, is the subject of another paper in this series.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99024.
Date of creation: Jun 1999
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-07-12 (All new papers)
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- Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
- F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Holden,Ken & Peel,David A. & Thompson,John L., 1991. "Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521356923, Fall.
- A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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