Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability
AbstractThe robustness analysis presented in this paper is a part of the work done to develop and verify the properties of a stochastic macroeconomic-demographic growth model focused on social security (MacKellar and Ermolieva 1999). The first set of experiments on robustness has been reported by Westlund et al. (1999). Here we study the sensitivity of model solutions with respect to structural changes in exogenous variables and time varying structural interactions. The parameters varied are the productivity of capital and labor force participation rates. The sensitivity analysis focuses on three macroeconomic indices of the stability of the old-age support system: current balance and assets of the private, defined-contribution, fully-funded pension system and balance of the public, defined-benefit, Pay As You Go (PAYG) pension system. Robustness at the microeconomic level, construed as the stability of pensioners' and workers' after-tax income, is the subject of another paper in this series.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99024.
Date of creation: Jun 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-07-12 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Holden,Ken & Peel,David A. & Thompson,John L., 1991. "Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521356923, October.
- Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.