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Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness

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  • A. Westlund
  • T.Y. Ermolieva
  • F.L. MacKellar
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we analyze the robustness of an economic-demographic projection model emphasizing the macroeconomic impact of age-structured savings and consumption behavior. The parameters varied are saving and labor force participation rates (two of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policy debate) and the parameters of the production function (the key source of uncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysis focuses on three variables: assets of the private pension system, the income of the non-working elderly, and the balance of the Pay As You Go Pension system.

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    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-004.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99004.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99004

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    References

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    1. Holden,Ken & Peel,David A. & Thompson,John L., 1991. "Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521356923.
    2. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    3. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1992. "Pension Systems in Transition Economies: Perspectives and Choices Ahead," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 47(Supplemen), pages 21-33.
    5. Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
    6. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    7. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    8. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:
    1. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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