Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness

Contents:

Author Info

  • A. Westlund
  • T.Y. Ermolieva
  • F.L. MacKellar
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper, we analyze the robustness of an economic-demographic projection model emphasizing the macroeconomic impact of age-structured savings and consumption behavior. The parameters varied are saving and labor force participation rates (two of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policy debate) and the parameters of the production function (the key source of uncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysis focuses on three variables: assets of the private pension system, the income of the non-working elderly, and the balance of the Pay As You Go Pension system.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-004.ps
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99004.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Feb 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99004

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
    Phone: +43-2236-807-0
    Fax: +43-2236-71313
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
    2. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1992. "Pension Systems in Transition Economies: Perspectives and Choices Ahead," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , , vol. 47(Supplemen), pages 21-33.
    4. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    5. Holden,Ken & Peel,David A. & Thompson,John L., 1991. "Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521356923.
    6. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    7. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    9. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.