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Success in difficult environments : a portfolio analysis of fragile and conflict-affected states

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  • Ralston, Laura

Abstract

The World Bank Group has identi?ed support to fragile and con?ict-affected states as a strategic priority. This paper provides a systematic portfolio review of the International Development Association-funded projects in fragile and conflict-affected states during 2001 to 2013 and a detailed empirical analysis of the correlations between project and country-level characteristics with project outcome ratings. The portfolio review identi?es a decline in the proportional amount of resources directed to fragile and conflict-affected states and a decline in the number of internationally recruited staff based in these countries. The empirical analysis ?nds no statistical difference in whether projects obtain at least a moderately satisfactory outcome rating between countries that are fragile and conflict-affected states and those that are not. Examination of the distribution of project outcome ratings indicates that projects in fragile and conflict-affected states obtain slightly lower ratings conditional on being unsatisfactory or satisfactory. Detailed cross-section regression analysis ?nds that indicators of project complexity, such as supervision costs, staff time, preparation time, and ?nancing, are correlated with lower outcome ratings. Project leader characteristics are correlated with project outcome ratings, but to a lesser degree in fragile and conflict-affected states, potentially indicating that it is more difficult for project leaders to in?uence project outcomes in these environments. Last, a new approach to control for unobservable project characteristics, such as inherent complexity or ambition, shows preliminary evidence that changes in the project leader and increases in the supervision budget are correlated with improvements in project performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralston, Laura, 2014. "Success in difficult environments : a portfolio analysis of fragile and conflict-affected states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7098, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geli,Patricia & Kraay,Aart C. & Nobakht,Hoveida, 2014. "Predicting World Bank project outcome ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7001, The World Bank.
    2. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 288-302.
    3. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Kilby & Katharina Michaelowa, 2019. "What Influences World Bank Project Evaluations?," Springer Books, in: Nabamita Dutta & Claudia R. Williamson (ed.), Lessons on Foreign Aid and Economic Development, chapter 0, pages 109-150, Springer.

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    Keywords

    Housing&Human Habitats; Country Strategy&Performance; Rural Portfolio Improvement; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Banks&Banking Reform;
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