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Predicting World Bank project outcome ratings

Author

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  • Geli,Patricia
  • Kraay,Aart C.
  • Nobakht,Hoveida

Abstract

A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Geli,Patricia & Kraay,Aart C. & Nobakht,Hoveida, 2014. "Predicting World Bank project outcome ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7001, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dollar, David & Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programmes?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 894-917, October.
    2. Guillaumont, Patrick & Laajaj, Rachid, 2006. "When instability increases the effectiveness of aid projects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4034, The World Bank.
    3. Kilby, Christopher, 2000. "Supervision and performance: the case of World Bank projects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 233-259, June.
    4. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 288-302.
    5. World Bank, 2009. "Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2009 : Achieving Sustainable Development," World Bank Publications - Reports 10533, The World Bank Group.
    6. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn & Basu, Swati, 1998. "Does Economic Analysis Improve the Quality of Foreign Assistance?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 385-418, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralston, Laura, 2014. "Success in difficult environments : a portfolio analysis of fragile and conflict-affected states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7098, The World Bank.
    2. Christopher Kilby & Katharina Michaelowa, 2019. "What Influences World Bank Project Evaluations?," Springer Books, in: Nabamita Dutta & Claudia R. Williamson (ed.), Lessons on Foreign Aid and Economic Development, chapter 0, pages 109-150, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness; Housing&Human Habitats; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Rural Portfolio Improvement; Banks&Banking Reform;
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