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Capital flight and war

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Author Info
Davies, Victor A. B.
Abstract

The author provides empirical evidence on the effects of inflation on post-war capital flight flows. He tests the hypothesis that inflation has a positive additional impact on capital flight flows after war. He uses a new panel dataset of 77 developing countries, of which 35 experienced at least one episode of war between 1971 and 2000. The author uses a range of estimation methods and four capital flight measures-Cline, World Bank Residual, Morgan Guarantee, and Dooley. The results consistently support the research hypothesis: Post-war inflation increases annual capital flight flows by about 0.005 to 0.01 percentage points of GDP. This effect is substantial in total at high inflation rates. The implication is that low inflation helps to curb capital flight in post-conflict economies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4210.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4210

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Investment and Investment Climate; Settlement of Investment Disputes; Achieving Shared Growth;

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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Africa's Exodus: Capital Flight and the Brain Drain as Portfolio Decisions," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(02), pages ii15-ii54, December.
  3. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Boyce, James K., 1992. "The revolving door? External debt and capital flight: A Philippine case study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 335-349, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Chang, P H Kevin & Claessens, Stijn & Cumby, Robert E, 1997. "Conceptual and Methodological Issues in the Measurement of Capital Flight," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 101-19, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mikkelsen, Jan Giehm, 1991. "An Econometric Investigation of Capital Flight," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 73-85, Part A, J.
  8. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1995. "War, peace and private portfolios," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 233-241, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Morimune, Kimio, 1983. "Approximate Distributions of k-Class Estimators When the Degree of Overidentifiability Is Large Compared with the Sample Size," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 821-41, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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