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Growth, debt, and sovereign risk in a small, open economy

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Author Info
Bhandari, Jagdeep S.
Ul Haque, Nadeem
Turnovsky, Stephen J.

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Abstract

The continuing debt crisis that many developing countries have faced in the current decade has underscored the need to understand the relationships between debt accumulation and growth, as well as the need to develop policy approaches that foster adjustment in the external account while maintaining the growth of output. The purpose of this paper is to develop a macroeconomic model for a small open developing economy that borrows abroad. This model will assist in studying the dynamic interaction between debt and growth, as well as the impact of various policies and exogenous shocks on the rate of capital accumulation, the current account and debt. From this analysis, the authors make the following conclusions. An upward shift in the supply of debt leads to a long run decline in external debt, a higher domestic interest rate, less capital stock, and a reduced trade surplus. An increase in the marginal cost of debt may or may not lower long run external debt as well. An increase in productivity raises the long run stock of capital but leaves the level of external debt and the interest rate unchanged in the long run. Finally, fiscal expansion has almost no effect in either the short run or the long run.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 260.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 1989
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:260

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Strategic Debt Management; Banks&Banking Reform; Financial Intermediation;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Fiscal Policy in Open, Interdependent Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 28, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1989. "Deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation: A re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 227-250, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1987. "Real exchange rate dynamics with nominal parities Structural change and overshooting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 141-155, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: Some Recent Developments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0015, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen Turnovsky, 1999. "Knife-Edge Conditions and the Macroeconomics of Small Open Economies," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0031, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1999. "Reserve Requirements on Sovereign Debt in the Presence of Moral Hazard -- on Debtors or Creditors?," NBER Working Papers 7004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 264, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Watanabe, Kiyoshi, 2003. "Effects of External Debt on Domestic Resource Allocation in a Small Open Economy with Limited Access to the World Capital Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 21-56, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peter Stockman, 2000. "The real dollar-yen exchange rate, asymmetries in trade flows and the current account in a perfect-foresight model for developing East Asia," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 19-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fisher, Walter H., 2004. "Imports, Status Preference, and Foreign Borrowing," Economics Series 161, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sarajevs, Vadims, 1999. "Macroeconomic Model of Transition Economy: A Stochastic Calculus Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alberto Petrucci, 2004. "Asset Accumulation, Fertility Choice and Nondegenerate Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2004.121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  10. Morales, Jorge & Tuesta, Pedro, 1998. "Calificaciones de crédito y riesgo país," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 3. [Downloadable!]
  11. Santanu Chatterjee & Georgios Sakoulis & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Unilateral Capital Transfers, Public Investment, and Economic Growth," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1936, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Fisher, Walter H. & Hof, Franz X., 2001. "Status Seeking in the Small Open Economy," Economics Series 106, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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