Emerging versus developed volatility indices. The comparison of VIW20 and VIX indices
AbstractModeling of financial markets volatility is one of the most significant issues of contemporary finance, especially with regard to analyzing high-frequency data. Accurate quantification and forecast of volatility are of immense importance in risk management (VaR models, stress testing and worst-case scenario), models of capital market and options valuation techniques. What we show in this paper is the methodology for calculating volatility index for Polish capital market (VIW20 – index anticipating expected volatility of WIG20 index). The methods presented are based on VIX index (VIX White Paper, 2003) and enriched with necessary modifications corresponding to the character of Polish options market. Quoted on CBOE, VIX index is currently known as the best measure of capital investment risk perfectly illustrating the level of fear and emotions of market participants. The conception of volatility index is based on the combination of realized volatility and implied volatility which, using methodology of Derman et al. (1999) and reconstructing volatility surface, reflects both volatility smile as well as its term structure. The research is carried out using high-frequency data (i.e. tick data) for index options on WIG20 index for the period November 2003 - May 2007, in other words, starting with the introduction of options by Warsaw Stock Exchange. All additional simulations are carried out using data gathered in years 1998-2008. Having analyzed VIW20 index in detail, we observed its characteristic behavior during the periods of strong market turmoils. What we also present is the analysis of the influence of VIW20 and VIX index-based instruments both on construction of minimum risk portfolio and on the quality of derivatives portfolio management in which volatility risk and liquidity risk play a key role. The main objective of this paper is to provide foundations for introducing appropriate volatility indices and volatility-based derivatives. This is done with paying attention to crucial methodology changes, necessary if one considers strong markets inefficiencies in emerging countries. As the introduction of appropriate instruments will enable active management of risks that are unhedgable nowadays it will significantly contribute to the development of the given markets in the course of time. In the summary we additionally point to the benefits Warsaw Stock Exchange might obtain from, being one of the few emerging markets possessing appropriately quantified investment risk as well as derivatives to manage it.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw in its series Working Papers with number 2009-11.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
financial market volatility; high-frequency data; realized volatility; realized range; implied and historical volatility; volatility forecasting; option pricing models; investment strategies; portfolio optimization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
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