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From Sovereigns to Banks: Evidence on Cross-border Contagion (2006-2011)

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  • Alesia Kalbaska

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the evolution of the banking system sensitivity to cross-border contagion over the period of 2006-2011. The study is performed on the basis of the BIS data on crossborder exposures and the Bankscope data on Tier 1 capital of 20 banking systems (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the UK and the US). Since the European sovereign debt crisis took a decisive turn at the end of 2009, markets started looking at its main protagonists - so called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) - with a lot of anxiety. However, unexpectedly, the analysis of the data shows that a single failure among PIIGS could be absorbed by the network in 2011. Nevertheless, multiple initial failures (especially combinations including Italy and/or Spain) could be more dangerous. The simulation results reveal that the resilience of banking systems to contagion risks tends to improve over the years. The most systemically important countries are those of the US, the UK, France and Germany. Besides, a shock to the US is capable of destroying the UK banking system already in the ?rst round, whereas the UK would not lead to the failure of the US banking system even after all rounds of contagion. The results also show that the banking systems of the US, Turkey and Finland are completely immune to contagion effects. At the same time, there exist considerable risks for Switzerland and Ireland as their banking systems default also with high recovery rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 680.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:680

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    Keywords: contagion; Furfine algorithm; stress testing; PIIGS;

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    1. Dirk Schoenmaker & Wolf Wagner, 2011. "The Impact of Cross-Border Banking on Financial Stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-054/2/DSF18, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 209-240.
    3. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2010. "Balance Sheet Network Analysis of too-Connected-To-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 10/107, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
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    7. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
    8. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," MPRA Paper 806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zuzana Fungáèová & Petr Jakubík, 2012. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Working Papers IES, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies 2012/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
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    11. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    12. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Patrick Slovik, 2010. "The EU Stress Test and Sovereign Debt Exposures," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 4, OECD Publishing.
    13. Goetz von Peter, 2007. "International banking centres: a network perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    14. Garratt, Rodney & Mahadeva, Lavan & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2011. "Mapping systemic risk in the international banking network," Bank of England working papers 413, Bank of England.
    15. Toivanen, Mervi, 2009. "Financial interlinkages and risk of contagion in the Finnish interbank market," Research Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland.
    16. Javier A. Reyes & Camelia Minoiu, 2011. "A Network Analysis of Global Banking:1978-2009," IMF Working Papers 11/74, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika & Stein, Ingrid, 2011. "Contagion at the interbank market with stochastic LGD," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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