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Financial Fragility and Economic Fluctuations: Numerical Simulations and Policy Implications

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  • Serena Sordi
  • Alessandro Vercelli

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple prototype model that describes the complex dynamics of a sophisticated monetary economy. The interaction between the current and intertemporal financial constraints of economic units brings about irregular fluctuations at the micro and macro levels. By means of qualitative dynamic analysis and numerical simulations, we reformulate in more operational terms, and extend in a number of new directions, the model suggested recently by one of the authors (Vercelli, 2000) to study the interaction between financial fragility, modelled in terms of structural instability, and dynamically unstable financial fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Serena Sordi & Alessandro Vercelli, 2003. "Financial Fragility and Economic Fluctuations: Numerical Simulations and Policy Implications," Department of Economics University of Siena 407, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vercelli,Allessandro, 1991. "Methodological Foundations of Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521392945.
    2. Hommes, Cars H., 1993. "Periodic, almost periodic and chaotic behaviour in Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 391-397.
    3. Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
    4. Vercelli, Alessandro, 2000. "Structural financial instability and cyclical fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 139-156, July.
    5. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Palestrini, Antonio, 2003. "Financial fragility, patterns of firms' entry and exit and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-97, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 26/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    2. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    3. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "Credit Rationing in a Basic Agent-Based Model," Finance 0505002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    5. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Prominent Numbers, Indices and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination and Financial Crashes: in Economists’ Models, in the Field and in the Laboratory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    6. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complex dynamics; Structural instability; Financial fragility; Economic fluctuations; Numerical simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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