Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Financial Fragility, Patterns Of Firms' Entry And Exit And Aggregate Dynamics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati, Gianfranco Giulioni, Antonio Palestrini, -DISCUSSANT: Thomas Brenner

Abstract

Recent literature stresses the drawbacks of the representative agent ap-proach. A growing number of contributions construct model which allows for agents heterogeneity [1, 2] while others claim that aggregate phenomena could be explained by the failure of the law of large numbers rather than by exogenous shocks (see [3] for instance). Another strand of literature stresses the importance of financial factors in determining the behavior of real vari-ables [4, 5, 6]. A few recent papers combine the two concepts. They show that a measure of dispersion of the distribution, other than its average value, matters for the dynamics of the aggregate variable, i.e., one should consider the whole (statistical) distribution of individual variables [7]. Of course, this distribution is heavy in uenced by the "entry-exit" process: bankruptcy eliminates the "worse" tail of the distribution, while the characteristics of the entrants modify it. Some analytical results has been already reached within such a framework [8].The goal of this paper is to verify if and how information availability on the credit market affects the economic dynamics and the distribution of firms with respect to their financial position and size. Moreover, ows into and out of the industry could be affected by credit availability. Our results show that the mean level and the variance of indebtedness of the system varies with the availability of information. In particular, if information is asymmetric the firmsÆ leverage ratio (as proxied by the ratio of corporate debt to capital) is higher and varies very smoothly. Aggregate output is also higher when firms are very leveraged and uctuations are amplified. Since the share of more leveraged firms is procyclical, cyclical downturns are driven by the exit process. We may therefore state that, according to this model, firmsÆ financial distribution movements drive the business cycle. Our results are corroborated by an econometric analysis of the model (European data 1960:I-1997:IV).We construct an agent based model on the basis of [9]. Differently from it, we introduce a credit supply curve from the profit maximization problem of the bank. This allows us to determinate the credit equilibrium conditions for each firm. The "bank problem" deserves some explanation since it in-troduces us to the "spatial structure" of the model. Because of information imperfections, banks do not know the "true" capital level of each firm and subscribe a standard debt contract with debtors: i.e., when debt is greater than capital, the bank takes all the capital. "Lemon" firms are allowed to reduce their capital to zero if the bank asks its money back. In such a case, a bank which finances a lemon firm, may lost all the loan. We assume that the bank activity is concentrated in a local zone and we endow a bank with a square lattice filled with firms to finance. By means of a "research center" the bank knows the average level of the surrounding firmsÆ capital: i.e. it knows only the average level of the financial indicator. We also assume that the share of the lemon firms is a positive function of the mean leverage ratio of the zone. It is possible now to deal with the heterogeneity of the financial position of the firms and interaction among agents (in the case in point, there is indirect interaction through banks.)The entry exit rules are modelled as follows. The exit rules are straight-forward in this framework. First, if a firm is very leveraged, it can judge that the advantage to remain on the credit market is lower than the bur-den of debt commitments (these are the lemon firms) and leaves the market. Secondly, if a firm demands for too much credit, the bank may adopt credit rationing policies. Even this kind of firm leaves the market, even if it is able to repay all the credit. In this case the banks avoids the formation of new lemons.For the entry process we exploit our spatial structure drawn from physics field, in particular from the model of magnetization. We endow each site of our lattice with a structure enclosing its four nearest neighbors. If a site is full, nothing happens and the firm goes ahead with its activity. If the site is empty, itÆs filled according to a Gibbs probability distribution with a nearest neighbors potential with anti-ferromagnetic characteristics. This means that the probability of entry rises with the number of empty neighbors. Such a rule has proven to be very useful when we consider more banks, i.e. more zones. In this situation we can analyze the case in which the firm care about credit conditions in the entry decision. If more zones are present, we let the exponent of our Gibbs distribution to depend positively on the financial situation: all in all, the probability of a birth is higher in the zones where credit conditions are favorable.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/cef00/papers/paper282.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Christopher F. Baum)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 282.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:282

Contact details of provider:
Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Email:
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," NBER Working Papers 3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114, February.
  4. Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Credit market imperfections and the heterogeneous response of firms to monetary shocks," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Baldwin,John R. & Gorecki,Paul With contributions by-Name:Caves,Richard E., 1998. "The Dynamics of Industrial Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633574.
  6. Williamson, Stephen D., 1996. "Real business cycle research comes of age: A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 161-170, August.
  7. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 99-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Sidney G. Winter & Yuri M. Kaniovski & Giovanni Dosi, 2003. "A Baseline Model of Industry Evolution," LEM Papers Series 2003/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & John Haltiwanger, 1995. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building From Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pietro Reichlin & Paolo Siconolfi, 1998. "Adverse Selection of Investment Projects and the Business Cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 326, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Stanca, Luca & Gallegati, Mauro, 1999. "The Dynamic Relation between Financial Positions and Investment: Evidence from Company Account Data," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 551-72, September.
  12. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  13. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  14. Luca Stanca & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati, 1999. "Financial fragility, heterogeneous agents, and aggregate fluctuations: evidence from a panel of US firms," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 87-99.
  15. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
  16. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  18. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sean Holly & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Heterogeneous Firms and the Cross Section of the Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2005. "Multi-agent modeling and simulation of a sequential monetary production economy," Computational Economics 0503002, EconWPA.
  3. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Small is Beautiful but Size Matters: The Asymmetric Impact of Uncertainty and Sunk Costs on Small and Large Businesses," MPRA Paper 5461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Annalisa Fabretti, 2013. "On the problem of calibrating an agent based model for financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 277-293, October.
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta & Paul Windrum, 2007. "A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies, Procedures, and Open Problems," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 195-226, October.
  6. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "On the Use of Agent-Based Simulations," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 32, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  7. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
  8. Bhattacharjee, A. & Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2004. "Business Failure in UK and US Quoted Firms: Impact of Macroeconomic Instability and the Role of Legal Institutions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0420, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
  10. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  11. Assenza, T. & Delli Gatti, D. & Gallegati, M., 2007. "Heterogeneity and Aggregation in a Financial Accelerator Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  12. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2013. "Business Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Evidence from Employment and Number of Businesses," CESifo Working Paper Series 4312, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Bianchi, Carlo & Cirillo, Pasquale & Gallegati, Mauro & Vagliasindi, Pietro A., 2008. "Validation in agent-based models: An investigation on the CATS model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 947-964, September.
  14. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Financial fragility and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 543-561, December.
  15. Carlo Bianchi & Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2007. "Validating and Calibrating Agent-Based Models: A Case Study," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 245-264, October.
  16. Serena Sordi & Alessandro Vercelli, 2003. "Financial Fragility and Economic Fluctuations: Numerical Simulations and Policy Implications," Department of Economics University of Siena 407, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  17. Paul Windrum & Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta, 2007. "Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 8.
  18. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
  19. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Marco & Gallegati, Mauro, 2005. "On the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, January.
  20. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Di Guilmi, Corrado & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Industrial Dynamics, And Business Fluctuations In An Agent-Based Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 62-79, November.
  21. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.