The Virgin HIV Puzzle: Can Misreporting Account for the High Proportion of HIV Cases in Self-Reported Virgins?
AbstractIt is widely believed that HIV is predominantly sexually transmitted in Sub Saharan Africa. This claim which is inconsistent with national representative data from Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Swaziland, which reveals that a significant proportion of HIV infections occurred in adolescents who claim to be virgins. Two explanations for this observation have been proposed: adolescents misreport sexual status or non-sexual risks are more prevalent than previously asserted. This paper empirically uncovers the implicit assumptions underlying this discussion, by estimating the proportion of sexually transmitted HIV infections assuming that misreporting is irrelevant, and the proportion of misreporting necessary to conclude that HIV is predominantly sexually transmitted. It shows that under the no-misreporting assumption, 70% of HIV cases in the respective sample of unmarried adolescent women is not due to sexual transmission. The assumption that HIV is predominantly sexually transmitted is only valid, if more than 55% of unmarried adolescent women who are sexually active have misreported sexual activity status. This research is designed to gain better understanding on the importance of different transmission modes. This is important to design combination prevention to achieve maximum impact on HIV prevention.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 with number 2010-24.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Population attributable fraction; non-classical measurement error; HIV transmission mode;
Other versions of this item:
- Eva Deuchert, 2011. "The Virgin HIV Puzzle: Can Misreporting Account for the High Proportion of HIV Cases in Self-reported Virgins?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(1), pages 60-89, January.
- Deuchert, Eva, 2008. "The Virgin HIV Puzzle: Can misreporting account for the high proportion of HIV cases in self-reported virgins?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 10, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2010-07-24 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2010-07-24 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kofi Awusabo-Asare & Samuel K. Annim, 2008. "Wealth Status and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Ghana and Kenya," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 6(1), pages 27-39.
- John Bongaarts & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig & François Pelletier, 2008. "Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(2), pages 199-224.
- Mark Gersovitz, 2005. "The HIV Epidemic in Four African Countries Seen through the Demographic and Health Surveys," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(2), pages 191-246, June.
- De Walque, Damien, 2004.
"How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment ? Evidence from rural Uganda,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3289, The World Bank.
- de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
- Damien de Walque, 2007. "Sero-Discordant Couples in Five African Countries: Implications for Prevention Strategies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(3), pages 501-523.
- Catharina Hjortsberg, 2003. "Why do the sick not utilise health care? The case of Zambia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(9), pages 755-770.
- Luke, Nancy, 2006. "Exchange and Condom Use in Informal Sexual Relationships in Urban Kenya," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 319-48, January.
- Erich Battistin & Barbara Sianesi, 2011. "Misclassified Treatment Status and Treatment Effects: An Application to Returns to Education in the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 495-509, May.
- Béné, Christophe & Merten, Sonja, 2008. "Women and Fish-for-Sex: Transactional Sex, HIV/AIDS and Gender in African Fisheries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 875-899, May.
- Peter J. Glick & David E. Sahn, 2008. "Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 397-439.
- David E. Sahn & Stephen D. Younger & Garance Genicot, 2003. "The Demand for Health Care Services in Rural Tanzania," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 241-260, 05.
- Barbara S. Mensch & Monica J. Grant & Ann K. Blanc, 2006. "The Changing Context of Sexual Initiation in sub-Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 699-727.
- Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martina Flockerzi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.