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State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate

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Listed:
  • Christopher J. O'Leary

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

  • Kenneth J. Kline

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

Abstract

Regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from reserves held in state accounts at the U.S. Treasury. The Great Recession exhausted the majority of UI reserve accounts, and not all states have rebuilt reserves. We examine the adequacy of current state and systemwide UI reserves to weather a mild, moderate, or severe recession in the coming months. Our results suggest that a recession as severe as the average of those occurring since 1975 would cause 18 states to exhaust UI reserves. Our simulations account for the fact that several states have cut benefit generosity since the Great Recession ended. Results suggest that despite federal incentives for forward funding, reserves are insufficient in many states. By accepted standards, state benefit provisions are not excessive, but state-imposed constraints on financing make the system slow to recover from debt. We suggest modest actions for UI financing reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. O'Leary & Kenneth J. Kline, 2020. "State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate," Upjohn Working Papers 20-321, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:20-321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trine Filges & Anders Bruun Jonassen & Anne‐Marie Klint Jørgensen, 2018. "Reducing unemployment benefit duration to increase job finding rates: a systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-194.
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    6. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment insurance; benefit financing; forward funding; taxable wage base; reserve ratio; adequate reserves; average high-cost rate; federal loans; state revenue bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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