IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upj/weupjo/19-312.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Eleanor Jawon Choi

    (Hanyang University)

  • Jaewoo Choi

    (Korea Development Institute)

  • Hyelim Son

    (University of Seoul)

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. We measure the overall welfare impact by examining not only labor market activities but also family formation and wealth accumulation. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and financial assets among men who graduated in a bad economy. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:19-312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1330&context=up_workingpapers
    Download Restriction: This material is copyrighted. Permission is required to reproduce any or all parts.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tom Krebs, 2004. "Welfare Cost of Business Cycles When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers 2004-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2012. "Clash Of Career And Family: Fertility Decisions After Job Displacement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 659-683, August.
    3. Hashimoto, Yuki & Kondo, Ayako, 2012. "Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Hershbein Brad J., 2012. "Graduating High School in a Recession: Work, Education, and Home Production," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    5. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    6. Tom Krebs, 2007. "Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 664-686, June.
    7. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    8. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    9. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    10. Joseph Han, 2018. "Long-Term Effects of Labour Market Entry Conditions: The Case of Korea," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 434-463, October.
    11. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    12. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2383-2424, July.
    13. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
    14. Gregory, Gary & Harvie, Charles & Lee, Hyun-Hoon, 2002. "Korean SMEs in the Wake of the Financial Crisis: Strategies, Constraints and Performance in a Global Economy," Economics Working Papers wp02-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    16. Ayako Kondo, 2012. "Gender-specific labor market conditions and family formation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 151-174, January.
    17. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
    18. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    19. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    20. McGarry, Kathleen, 2016. "Dynamic aspects of family transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-13.
    21. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 2000. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 105-153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Zhuan Pei & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Hannes Schwandt, 2019. "Poorly Measured Confounders are More Useful on the Left than on the Right," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 205-216, April.
    23. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Peter Nilsson & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2018. "The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 985-1033, April.
    24. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Adapting to Circumstances (The Evolution of Work, School,and Living Arrangements among North American Youth)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 171-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Daiji Kawaguchi & Ayako Kondo, 2020. "The Effects Of Graduating From College During A Recession On Living Standards," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 283-293, January.
    26. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    27. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2, March.
    28. Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3730-3778.
    29. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    30. Tom Krebs, 2007. "Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 664-686, June.
    31. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    32. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    34. Gary Gregory & Charles Harvie & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2002. "KOREAN SMEs IN THE 21-super-st CENTURY: STRATEGIES, CONSTRAINTS AND PERFORMANCE IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 21(3), pages 64-79, September.
    35. Abigail Wozniak, 2010. "Are College Graduates More Responsive to Distant Labor Market Opportunities?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 944-970.
    36. Bart Cockx, 2016. "Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 281-281, August.
    37. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    38. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, October.
    39. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    40. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    41. Dettling, Lisa J. & Hsu, Joanne W., 2018. "Returning to the nest: Debt and parental co-residence among young adults," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 225-236.
    42. Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Ayako Kondo, 2015. "Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    6. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    7. Sjögren, Anna & Mattias , Mattias & Hall, Caroline & Holmlund, Helena & Lundin, Martin & Mühlrad, Hanna & Öckert, Björn, 2021. "Swedish children and youth during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    8. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession," Post-Print hal-01408637, HAL.
    9. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    10. Mattias Engdahl & Mathilde Godard & Oskar N Skans, 2018. "Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation," Working Papers halshs-01958437, HAL.
    11. Clementine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 70-92, November.
    12. Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2017. "The Perfect Storm: Graduating in a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10597, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Engdahl, Mattias & Godard, Mathilde & Skans, Oskar N., 2019. "Entrer sur le marché du travail en période de récession : quels effets sur le parcours familial ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1903, CEPREMAP.
    14. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    15. Mark Borgschulte & Paco Martorell, 2018. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 101-127, July.
    16. Berniell, Inés & Gasparini, Leonardo & Marchionni, Mariana & Viollaz, Mariana, 2023. "Lucky women in unlucky cohorts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    18. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
    19. Fraser Summerfield & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2017. "The Effects Of Macroeconomic Conditions At Graduation On Overeducation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1370-1387, July.
    20. KONDO Ayako, 2023. "Scars of the Job Market "Ice-Age"," Discussion papers 23042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    recession; financial crisis; long-term effects; college graduates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:19-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/upjohus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.