A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities
AbstractThis paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes of QALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimated TTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states were embedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used to predict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that the power QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models. Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALY calculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 741.
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/
Cost-utility analysis; QALYs; power QALY model; predictive validity; time tradeoff; Leex;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- D99 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dolan, Paul & Jones-Lee, Michael, 1997. "The time trade-off: A note on the effect of lifetime reallocation of consumption and discounting," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 731-739, December.
- Happich, Michael, 2001. "Utility functions for life years and health status: An additional remark," Discussion Papers 2001/6, Technische Universität Berlin, School of Economics and Management.
- Hall, Jane & Gerard, Karen & Salkeld, Glenn & Richardson, Jeff, 1992. "A cost utility analysis of mammography screening in Australia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 993-1004, May.
- Loomes, Graham & McKenzie, Lynda, 1989. "The use of QALYs in health care decision making," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 299-308, January.
- Bleichrodt, Han & Johannesson, Magnus, 1997. "Standard gamble, time trade-off and rating scale: Experimental results on the ranking properties of QALYs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 155-175, April.
- Dolan, Paul, 2000. "The measurement of health-related quality of life for use in resource allocation decisions in health care," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 32, pages 1723-1760 Elsevier.
- Bleichrodt, Han & Quiggin, John, 1997. "Characterizing QALYs under a General Rank Dependent Utility Model," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 151-65, November.
- Han Bleichrodt & Jose Luis Pinto, 2000. "A Parameter-Free Elicitation of the Probability Weighting Function in Medical Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(11), pages 1485-1496, November.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- Miyamoto, John M. & Eraker, Stephen A., 1989. "Parametric models of the utility of survival duration: Tests of axioms in a generic utility framework," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 166-202, October.
- Linda D. MacKeigan & Amiram Gafni & Bernie J. O'Brien, 2003. "Double discounting of QALYs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 165-169.
- Bostic, Raphael & Herrnstein, R. J. & Luce, R. Duncan, 1990. "The effect on the preference-reversal phenomenon of using choice indifferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 193-212, March.
- Bleichrodt, Han & Gafni, Amiram, 1996. "Time preference, the discounted utility model and health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 49-66, February.
- Torrance, George W., 1986. "Measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal : A review," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.