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Resolving Inconsistencies in Utility Measurement Under Risk: Tests of Generalizations of Expected Utility

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Author Info

  • Han Bleichrodt

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Erasmus University, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Jose Maria Abellan-Perpiñan

    ()
    (Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Murcia, Espinardo Campus, 30100 Murcia, Spain)

  • Jose Luis Pinto-Prades

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Economic History, University Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera, Km. 1, 41013 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Ildefonso Mendez-Martinez

    ()
    (Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Murcia, Espinardo Campus, 30100 Murcia, Spain)

Abstract

This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect (riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation for the latter observation may be that there was less distortion in probability weighting in the interval [0.10, 0.20] than has commonly been observed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 53 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 469-482

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:53:y:2007:i:3:p:469-482

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Keywords: utility measurement; nonexpected utility; prospect theory; health;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jose Luis Pinto Prades & Graham Loomes & Raul Brey, 2008. "Trying to estimate a monetary value for the QALY," Working Papers 08.09, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  2. Jose Mª Abellán Perpiñán & Fernando Ignacio Sánchez Martínez & Jorge Eduardo Martínez Pérez & Ildefonso Méndez Martínez, 2009. "The QALY model wich came in from a general population survey: roughly multiplicative, broadly nonlinear and sometimes contex-dependt," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2009/04, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  3. Jose-Luis Pinto-Prades & Jose-Maria Abellan-Perpiñan, 2011. "When normative and descriptive diverge: how to bridge the difference," Working Papers 11.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  4. Arthur E. Attema & Werner B.F. Brouwer & Olivier l'Haridon, 2013. "A quantification of prospect theory in the health domain," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201321, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  5. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Ahmed Driouchi & Olivier L’Haridon, 2011. "Risk aversion elicitation: reconciling tractability and bias minimization," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(1), pages 63-80, July.
  6. Bleichrodt, Han & Filko, Martin, 2008. "New tests of QALYs when health varies over time," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1237-1249, September.
  7. Bleichrodt, Han & Quiggin, John, 2011. "Capabilities as Menus: A Non-Welfarist Basis for QALY Evaluation," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151199, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  8. Christopher Schwand & Rudolf Vetschera & Lea Wakolbinger, 2010. "The influence of probabilities on the response mode bias in utility elicitation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 395-416, September.
  9. Attema, Arthur & Brouwer, Werner & l'Haridon, Olivier, 2013. "Prospect theory in the health domain: a quantitative assessment," MPRA Paper 44207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria & Bleichrodt, Han & Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis, 2009. "The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1039-1047, December.
  11. Attema, Arthur & Brouwer, Werner, 2012. "Deriving time discounting correction factors for TTO tariffs," MPRA Paper 37002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2011. "Uncertainty Equivalents: Testing the Limits of the Independence Axiom," NBER Working Papers 17342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Chen Li & Zhihua Li & Peter Wakker, 2014. "If nudge cannot be applied: a litmus test of the readers’ stance on paternalism," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 297-315, March.
  14. Jones-Lee, M. & Spackman, M., 2013. "The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 23-40.
  15. Stefan Zeisberger & Dennis Vrecko & Thomas Langer, 2012. "Measuring the time stability of Prospect Theory preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 359-386, March.

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