The Interplay Between the Thai and Several Other International Stock Markets
AbstractThe paper analyses the effect of various international stock market price indices and some relevant macroeconomic variables on the Thai stock market price index, using a GARCH-M model and monthly data from January 1988 to December 2004. It is found, inter alia, that (a) changes in stock market returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the pre-1997 Asian crisis, and changes in Singapore, the Philippines and Korea in the post-1997 era instantaneously influenced returns in the Thai stock market; (b) changes in the price of crude oil negatively impacted on the Thai stock market only in the pre-Asian crisis period; (c) volatility clustering (i.e. ARCH and GARCH effects) as well as a GARCH-M model were statistically significant only in the pre-1997 era; and (d) stock markets outside the region had no significant immediate impact on monthly aggregate returns in the Thai stock market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp06-18.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Stock market; conditional volatility; macroeconomic variables; GARCH; Thailand;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2006-08-26 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2006-08-26 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-26 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-08-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2006-08-26 (South East Asia)
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