IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unl/novafr/wp1502.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Franco
  • Julio Antonio Rocha Delgado
  • Suzana Camacho Monteiro
  • Pedro Castro e Silva

Abstract

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Franco & Julio Antonio Rocha Delgado & Suzana Camacho Monteiro & Pedro Castro e Silva, 2015. "Exchange rate pressure in Angola," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1502, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:novafr:wp1502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://novafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/15021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Sri Lanka: Eighth and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/198, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Bolivia: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/149, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Angola: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation and Post Program Monitoring," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/215, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Cameroon: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/237, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Greece: Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for ," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/057, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    13. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Angola: Second Post-Program Monitoring," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/162, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luis Pereira & Afonso Reis, 2009. "Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 645-682, November.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Indonesia: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/277, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Angola: Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executiv," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/103, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Romania: Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/157, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Franco & Julio Antonio Rocha Delgado & Suzana Camacho Monteiro & Pedro Castro e Silva, 2015. "Exchange rate pressure in Angola," FEUNL Working Paper Series novaf:wp1502, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    2. Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Umang Rawat & Itaru Yamamoto, 2020. "Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 2020/009, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2015. "Capital inflows and the interest premium problem: The effects of monetary sterilisation in selected Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Elsa Fornero, 2015. "Economic-financial Literacy and (Sustainable) Pension Reforms: Why the Former is a Key Ingredient for the Latter," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 6-16, January-F.
    5. Alex Miksjuk & Mr. Sam Ouliaris & Mikhail Pranovich, 2015. "The Game of Anchors: Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2015/281, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Abroskin A.S. (Аброскин, А.С.) & Abroskina N.A. (Аброскина, Н.А.), 2016. "Methods of Analysis of Shadow of Cross-Border Capital Flows [Методы Анализа Теневых Трансграничных Потоков Капитала]," Working Papers 2134, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    7. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    8. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon & C. Fred Bergsten, 2012. "Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order," Policy Briefs PB12-25, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    12. Anne-Marie Brook, 2013. "Making fiscal policy more stabilising in the next upturn: Challenges and policy options," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 71-94, April.
    13. Arce, Fernando, 2021. "Private Overborrowing under Sovereign Risk," MPRA Paper 113176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Liberia: 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/340, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    17. Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2019. "The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 231-258.
    18. Kabbashi M. Suliman, 2016. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Management in Sudan," Working Papers 1044, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    19. Pablo Winant & Jonathan Ostry & Atish Ghosh & Suman Basu, 2016. "Managing Capital Outflows: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention," 2016 Meeting Papers 756, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Ms. Anja Baum & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 2012/286, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unl:novafr:wp1502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susana Lopes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feunlpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.