Un análisis de comportamiento a nivel de agente de la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del BCU
AbstractInflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation expectation survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The main findings indicate: i) a low predictive power of the analysts surveyed in the 12-month horizon; ii) a convergence of the individual forecasts to the released monthly median iii) an overweight of the inflation target ceiling and the dynamics of the inflation, and iv) a underweight of monetary policy instruments. With respect to the evidence of rationality, we find the partial use of available information and in some cases, there is a systematic bias.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0111.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
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inflation expectations; rationality; forecast error;
Other versions of this item:
- Borraz, Fernando & Gianelli, Diego, 2010.
"Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU
[A Behavior Analysis of the BCU Inflation Expectation Survey]," MPRA Paper 27713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-19 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CIS-2011-02-19 (Confederation of Independent States)
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