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An Econometric Analysis of Burglary in Ireland

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Author Info
Kevin Denny (University College Dublin)
Colm Harmon (University College Dublin)
Reamonn Lydon (University College Dublin)

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Abstract

This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors - in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system - the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2004/WP04.16.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2004
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200416.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 24 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200416

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  1. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Levitt, Steven D, 1998. "Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime: Deterrence, Incapacitation, or Measurement Error?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 353-72, July.
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  3. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Eoin O’Sullivan & Ian O’Donnell, 2003. "Imprisonment and the Crime Rate in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 33–64. [Downloadable!]
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