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Carrots, Sticks and Broken Windows

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Author Info
Hope Corman
Naci Mocan

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of economics conditions (carrots) and sanctions (sticks) on murder, assault, robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in New York City, using monthly time-series data spanning 1974-1999. Carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage; sticks are measured by felony arrests, police force and New York City residents in prison. In addition, the paper tests the validity of the 'broken windows' hypothesis, where misdemeanor arrests are used as a measure of broken windows policing. The broken windows hypothesis has validity in case of robbery and motor vehicle theft. The models explain between 33 and 86 percent of the observed decline in these crimes between 1990 and 1999. While both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime, the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9061.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9061

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Theodore J. Joyce & Naci H. Mocan, 1990. "The Impact of a Ban on Legalized Abortion on Adolescent Childbearing in New York City," NBER Working Papers 3002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hope Corman & H. Naci Mocan, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact Of Legalized Abortion On Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Donohue, John J, III & Siegelman, Peter, 1998. "Allocating Resources among Prisons and Social Programs in the Battle against Crime," Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-43, January.
  5. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas A. Garrett & Lesli S. Ott, 2008. "City business cycles and crime," Working Papers 2008-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ben Vollaard, 2005. "Police numbers up, crime rates down. The effect of police on crime in the Netherlands, 1996-2003," Law and Economics 0501006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hope Corman & Kelly Noonan & Nancy E. Reichman & Ofira Schwartz-Soicher, 2006. "Crime and Circumstance: The Effects of Infant Health Shocks on Fathers' Criminal Activity," NBER Working Papers 12754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mocan, H. Naci & Tekin, Erdal, 2003. "Guns, Drugs and Juvenile Crime: Evidence from a Panel of Siblings and Twins," IZA Discussion Papers 932, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Robert Dur, 2006. "Status-Seeking in Violent Subcultures and the Double Dividend of Zero-Tolerance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-005/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert Dur, 2006. "Status-Seeking in Criminal Subcultures and the Double Dividend of Zero-Tolerance," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  7. H. Naci Mocan & Erdal Tekin, 2002. "Catholic Schools and Bad Behavior: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mocan, H. Naci & Scafidi, Benjamin & Tekin, Erdal, 2002. "Catholic Schools and Bad Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 599, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Eoin O’Sullivan & Ian O’Donnell, 2003. "Imprisonment and the Crime Rate in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 33–64. [Downloadable!]
  10. Janet Currie & Erdal Tekin, 2006. "Does Child Abuse Cause Crime?," NBER Working Papers 12171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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