IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucl/cepeow/22-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes?

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Anderson

    (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities)

Abstract

This paper offers new insight into the link between success in high stakes exams and subsequent education and labour market outcomes. It is the first study to look holistically at the impact of crossing an important high stakes threshold on both academic and vocational education choices and ultimately labour market outcomes. It does so by comparing those either side of a formerly important threshold in the English education system at the end of compulsory schooling (achieving five general certificate of secondary education A* to C passes) which was commonly regarded as the minimum benchmark for continuing into post-compulsory education. I find that crossing this threshold led to an 6.3-6.7 percentage point increase in the proportion of men and women (respectively) going on to take academic qualifications, with little change in the proportion taking vocational qualifications, leading to a net increase in those staying on after compulsory schooling. Women's daily earnings in 2017-18 (11-13 years after leaving compulsory schooling) were 3.1 percentage points higher for those just crossing the threshold, but men's early labour market outcomes were unchanged. The results for men can be explained by low returns to academic qualifications for marginal learners. The findings for women do not disappear after accounting for subsequent education choices, suggesting that crossing the threshold may play a signalling role for employers as well as education institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Anderson, 2022. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes?," CEPEO Working Paper Series 22-05, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Apr 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:22-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp22-05.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justine S. Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2013. "Are Some Degrees Worth More than Others? Evidence from college admission cutoffs in Chile," NBER Working Papers 19241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fernando Galindo-Rueda & Oscar Marcenaro-Gutierrez & Anna Vignoles, 2004. "The Widening Socio-Economic Gap in UK Higher Education," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 190(1), pages 75-88, October.
    3. Steven Mcintosh, 2006. "Further Analysis of the Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(2), pages 225-251, April.
    4. Haroon Chowdry & Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Alissa Goodman & Anna Vignoles, 2013. "Widening participation in higher education: analysis using linked administrative data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 431-457, February.
    5. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Massimo Anelli, 2020. "The Returns to Elite University Education: a Quasi-Experimental Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2824-2868.
    7. Avraham Ebenstein & Victor Lavy & Sefi Roth, 2016. "The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 36-65, October.
    8. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andrew Weiss, 1995. "Human Capital vs. Signalling Explanations of Wages," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 133-154, Fall.
    10. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, March.
    11. Marta De Philippis, 2016. "Studying science: the impact of school curriculum on degree choice," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 493, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Charley Greenwood & Andrew Jenkins & Anna Vignoles, 2007. "The Returns to Qualifications in England: Updating the Evidence Base on Level 2 and Level 3 Vocational Qualifications," CEE Discussion Papers 0089, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    13. Serena Canaan & Pierre Mouganie, 2018. "Returns to Education Quality for Low-Skilled Students: Evidence from a Discontinuity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 395-436.
    14. Jia, Ruixue & Li, Hongbin, 2021. "Just above the exam cutoff score: Elite college admission and wages in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Thomas S. Dee & Will Dobbie & Brian A. Jacob & Jonah Rockoff, 2019. "The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 382-423, July.
    16. Robin Naylor & Jeremy Smith & Shqiponja Telhaj, 2016. "Graduate returns, degree class premia and higher education expansion in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 525-545.
    17. Lorraine Dearden & Leslie McGranahan & Leslie McGranahan & Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "Returns to Education for the Marginal Learner: Evidence from the BCS70," CEE Discussion Papers 0045, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    18. Gill Wyness, 2021. "Should we abolish GCSEs?," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 14, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2021.
    19. Seth D. Zimmerman, 2019. "Elite Colleges and Upward Mobility to Top Jobs and Top Incomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 1-47, January.
    20. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Damon Clark & Paco Martorell, 2014. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(2), pages 282-318.
    22. Aakvik, Arild & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Vaage, Kjell, 2010. "Measuring heterogeneity in the returns to education using an education reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 483-500, May.
    23. Rebecca Diamond & Petra Persson, 2016. "The Long-term Consequences of Teacher Discretion in Grading of High-stakes Tests," NBER Working Papers 22207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. John G. Riley, 2001. "Silver Signals: Twenty-Five Years of Screening and Signaling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 432-478, June.
    25. Steven McIntosh & Damon Morris, 2021. "Variation in the labour market rewards to vocational qualifications in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 535-552, November.
    26. Massimo Anelli, 0. "The Returns to Elite University Education: a Quasi-Experimental Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2824-2868.
    27. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    28. Mark Hoekstra, 2009. "The Effect of Attending the Flagship State University on Earnings: A Discontinuity-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 717-724, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver Anderson, 2023. "Walking the line: Does crossing a high-stakes exam threshold matter for labor market outcomes?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 01, Stata Users Group.
    2. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Entry through the narrow door: The costs of just failing high stakes exams," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Naven, Matthew & Whalen, Daniel, 2022. "The signaling value of university rankings: Evidence from top 14 law schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Stanislav Avdeev, 2020. "Zero Returns To Higher Education: Evidence From A Natural Experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 236/EC/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Thomas O. BRODATY & Robert J. GARY-BOBO & Ana PRIETO, 2009. "Does Speed Signal Ability , A Test of Spence's Theory," Working Papers 2009-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Belfield, Chris & Vignoles, Anna & Dickson, Matt & Zhu, Yu & Walker, Ian & Dearden, Lorraine & Sibieta, Luke & Buscha, Franz, 2022. "How much does degree choice matter?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Hans‐Peter Y. Qvist & Anders Holm & Martin D. Munk, 2021. "Demand and Supply Effects and Returns to College Education: Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Engineers in Denmark," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(2), pages 676-704, April.
    8. Fossen, Frank M. & Büttner, Tobias J.M., 2013. "The returns to education for opportunity entrepreneurs, necessity entrepreneurs, and paid employees," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 66-84.
    9. Eric Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2012. "Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 267-321, December.
    10. Suqin Ge & Elliott Isaac & Amalia Miller, 2022. "Elite Schools and Opting In: Effects of College Selectivity on Career and Family Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 383-427.
    11. Steven McIntosh & Damon Morris, 2016. "Labour Market Returns to Vocational Qualifications in the Labour Force Survey," CVER Research Papers 002, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
    12. Joshua Goodman, 2019. "The Labor of Division: Returns to Compulsory High School Math Coursework," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(4), pages 1141-1182.
    13. Cecilia Machado & Germ'an Reyes & Evan Riehl, 2023. "The Direct and Spillover Effects of Large-scale Affirmative Action at an Elite Brazilian University," Papers 2305.02513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Matt Dickson, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Education on Wages Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 477-498, August.
    15. Bonin, Holger, 2017. "The Potential Economic Benefits of Education of Migrants in the EU," IZA Research Reports 75, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. W. Bentley MacLeod & Evan Riehl & Juan E. Saavedra & Miguel Urquiola, 2017. "The Big Sort: College Reputation and Labor Market Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 223-261, July.
    17. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek & Ian Walker, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Microeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 115-156, April.
    18. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila, 2018. "Is additional schooling worthless? Revising the zero returns to compulsory schooling in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181528, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Suqin Ge & Hans Haller, 2018. "Job Market Signaling and Returns to Education," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 734-741, January.
    20. Arteaga, Carolina, 2018. "The effect of human capital on earnings: Evidence from a reform at Colombia's top university," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 212-225.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:22-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Anders (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.