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Do State Fiscal Policies Affect State Economic Growth?

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Author Info

  • James Alm

    () (Department of Economics, Tulane University)

  • Janet Rogers

    () (Department of Planning Section, Nevada Department of Administration Division of Budget & Planning)

Abstract

What factors influence state economic growth? This paper uses annual state (and local) data for the years 1947 to 1997 for the 48 contiguous states to estimate the effects of a large number of factors, including taxation and expenditure policies, on state economic growth. A special feature of the empirical work is the use of orthogonal distance regression (ODR) to deal with the likely presence of measurement error in many of the variables. The results indicate that the correlation between state (and state and local) taxation policies is often statistically significant but also quite sensitive to the specific regressor set and time period; in contrast, the effects of expenditure policies are much more consistent. Of some interest, there is moderately strong evidence that a state's political orientation has consistent and measurable effects on economic growth; perhaps surprisingly, a more "conservative" political orientation is associated with lower rates of economic growth. Finally, correction for measurement error is essential in estimating the growth impacts of policies. Indeed, when measurement error is considered via ODR estimation, the estimation results do not support conditional convergence in state per capita income.

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File URL: http://econ.tulane.edu/RePEc/pdf/tul1107.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tulane University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1107.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1107

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Keywords: fiscal policies; regional economic growth; orthogonal distance regression;

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References

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  1. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-91, November.
  2. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
  3. Guido Enrico Tabellini & Torsten Persson, 1991. "Growth, Distribution and Politics," IMF Working Papers 91/78, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
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  7. W. Robert Reed, 2009. "The Determinants Of U.S. State Economic Growth: A Less Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 685-700, October.
  8. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas B. Mandelbaum, 1989. "Have federal spending and taxation contributed to the divergence of state per capita incomes in the 1980s?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 29-42.
  9. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
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  11. Akai, Nobuo & Sakata, Masayo, 2002. "Fiscal decentralization contributes to economic growth: evidence from state-level cross-section data for the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-108, July.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  13. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  14. Paul A. David, 2005. "Two Centuries of American Macroeconomic Growth From Exploitation of Resource Abundance to Knowledge-Driven Development," Macroeconomics 0502021, EconWPA.
  15. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  16. Paul A. David, 2005. "The Tale of Two Traverses: Innovation and Accumulation in the First Two Centuries of U.S. Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 05-022, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  17. Paul A. David, 2005. "Reforming the Taxation of Human Capital: A Modest Proposal for Promoting Economic Growth," HEW 0502002, EconWPA.
  18. Crain, W Mark & Lee, Katherine J, 1999. "Economic Growth Regressions for the American States: A Sensitivity Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 242-57, April.
  19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  20. Gasper A. Garofalo & Steven Yamarik, 2002. "Regional Convergence: Evidence From A New State-By-State Capital Stock Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 316-323, May.
  21. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
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Cited by:
  1. W. Robert Reed, 2006. "The Determinants of U. S. State Economic Growth: A Less Extreme Bounds Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 06/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

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