Modelling group processes and effort estimation in Project Management using the Choquet integral: an MCDM approach
AbstractWe investigate the group processes involved in effort estimation in the context of Project Management. The groups considered are formed by "experts" (people with specific technical competence) and "non-experts"Â¬Ã¹ (people with less specific technical competence, usually experts in related fields), because the typically complementary bias of the two classes contribute to a more balanced estimate. In this paper we exploit further the synergies between experts and non-experts in an MCDM framework, aggregating the individual estimates by means of non-additive Choquet integration, and representing the complementary bias by the multiagent interaction structure underlying the capacity. We present some examples and computer simulations whose aggregation results outperform those of the classical weighted mean (additive case), showing lower MMRE (mean magnitude of the relative error between the central estimate and the actual value) and higher HitRate (at which the interval estimate contains the actual value).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series DISA Working Papers with number 2011/12.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision: Sep 2011
Postal: DISA Università degli Studi di Trento via Inama, 5 I-38122 Trento TN Italy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2011-10-09 (Business Economics)
- NEP-PPM-2011-10-09 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00267932 is not listed on IDEAS
- Grabisch, Michel, 1996. "The application of fuzzy integrals in multicriteria decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 445-456, March.
- repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00188165 is not listed on IDEAS
- Miranda, P. & Grabisch, M. & Gil, P., 2005.
"Axiomatic structure of k-additive capacities,"
Mathematical Social Sciences,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 153-178, March.
- Brice Mayag & Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2011.
"A representation of preferences by the Choquet integral with respect to a 2-additive capacity,"
Theory and Decision,
Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 297-324, September.
- repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00496558 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00625708 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00187175 is not listed on IDEAS
- Grabisch, Michel & Kojadinovic, Ivan & Meyer, Patrick, 2008.
"A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory: Applications of the Kappalab R package,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 766-785, April.
- Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2004. "Fuzzy measures and integrals in MCDA," Post-Print halshs-00268985, HAL.
- Marc Roubens & Michel Grabisch, 1999.
"An axiomatic approach to the concept of interaction among players in cooperative games,"
International Journal of Game Theory,
Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 547-565.
- Grabisch, M. & Roubens, M., 1998. "An Axiomatic Approach to the Concept of Interaction Among Players in Cooperative Games," Liege - Groupe d'Etude des Mathematiques du Management et de l'Economie 9818, UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE, Faculte d'economie, de gestion et de sciences sociales, Groupe d'Etude des Mathematiques du Management et de l'Economie.
- Berrah, L. & Mauris, G. & Montmain, J., 2008. "Monitoring the improvement of an overall industrial performance based on a Choquet integral aggregation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 340-351, June.
- Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Gabriele).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.