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Modelling group processes and effort estimation in Project Management using the Choquet integral: an MCDM approach

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Author Info

  • Alessio Bonetti
  • Silvia Bortot
  • Mario Fedrizzi
  • Silvio Giove
  • Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira
  • Andrea Molinari
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    Abstract

    We investigate the group processes involved in effort estimation in the context of Project Management. The groups considered are formed by "experts" (people with specific technical competence) and "non-experts"¬ù (people with less specific technical competence, usually experts in related fields), because the typically complementary bias of the two classes contribute to a more balanced estimate. In this paper we exploit further the synergies between experts and non-experts in an MCDM framework, aggregating the individual estimates by means of non-additive Choquet integration, and representing the complementary bias by the multiagent interaction structure underlying the capacity. We present some examples and computer simulations whose aggregation results outperform those of the classical weighted mean (additive case), showing lower MMRE (mean magnitude of the relative error between the central estimate and the actual value) and higher HitRate (at which the interval estimate contains the actual value).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series DISA Working Papers with number 2011/12.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2011
    Date of revision: Sep 2011
    Handle: RePEc:trt:disawp:2011/12

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    Related research

    Keywords: Group decisions and multi-agent systems; multiple criteria analysis and criteria interaction; aggregation functions; Choquet integration; Project Management; effort estimation.;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Pedro Miranda & Michel Grabisch & Pedro Gil, 2005. "Axiomatic structure of k-additive capacities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00188165, HAL.
    2. Michel Grabisch & Ivan Kojadinovic & Patrick Meyer, 2008. "A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory: Applications of the Kappalab R package," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00187175, HAL.
    3. Berrah, L. & Mauris, G. & Montmain, J., 2008. "Monitoring the improvement of an overall industrial performance based on a Choquet integral aggregation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 340-351, June.
    4. Marc Roubens & Michel Grabisch, 1999. "An axiomatic approach to the concept of interaction among players in cooperative games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 547-565.
    5. Brice Mayag & Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2011. "A characterization of the 2-additive Choquet integral through cardinal information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00625708, HAL.
    6. Brice Mayag & Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2011. "A Representation of Preferences by the Choquet Integral with Respect to a 2-Additive Capacity," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00625706, HAL.
    7. Grabisch, Michel, 1996. "The application of fuzzy integrals in multicriteria decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 445-456, March.
    8. Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2004. "Fuzzy measures and integrals in MCDA," Post-Print halshs-00268985, HAL.
    9. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    10. Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2008. "A decade of application of the Choquet and Sugeno integrals in multi-criteria decision aid," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00267932, HAL.
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