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Modelling group processes and effort estimation in Project Management using the Choquet integral: an MCDM approach


Author Info

  • Alessio Bonetti
  • Silvia Bortot
  • Mario Fedrizzi
  • Silvio Giove
  • Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira
  • Andrea Molinari
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    We investigate the group processes involved in effort estimation in the context of Project Management. The groups considered are formed by "experts" (people with specific technical competence) and "non-experts"¬ù (people with less specific technical competence, usually experts in related fields), because the typically complementary bias of the two classes contribute to a more balanced estimate. In this paper we exploit further the synergies between experts and non-experts in an MCDM framework, aggregating the individual estimates by means of non-additive Choquet integration, and representing the complementary bias by the multiagent interaction structure underlying the capacity. We present some examples and computer simulations whose aggregation results outperform those of the classical weighted mean (additive case), showing lower MMRE (mean magnitude of the relative error between the central estimate and the actual value) and higher HitRate (at which the interval estimate contains the actual value).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series DISA Working Papers with number 2011/12.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2011
    Date of revision: Sep 2011
    Handle: RePEc:trt:disawp:2011/12

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    Postal: DISA Università degli Studi di Trento via Inama, 5 I-38122 Trento TN Italy

    Related research

    Keywords: Group decisions and multi-agent systems; multiple criteria analysis and criteria interaction; aggregation functions; Choquet integration; Project Management; effort estimation.;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


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    2. Grabisch, Michel, 1996. "The application of fuzzy integrals in multicriteria decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 445-456, March.
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    4. Miranda, P. & Grabisch, M. & Gil, P., 2005. "Axiomatic structure of k-additive capacities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 153-178, March.
    5. Brice Mayag & Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2011. "A representation of preferences by the Choquet integral with respect to a 2-additive capacity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 297-324, September.
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    9. Grabisch, Michel & Kojadinovic, Ivan & Meyer, Patrick, 2008. "A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory: Applications of the Kappalab R package," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 766-785, April.
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    12. Berrah, L. & Mauris, G. & Montmain, J., 2008. "Monitoring the improvement of an overall industrial performance based on a Choquet integral aggregation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 340-351, June.
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