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On the Elicitation of Time Preference under Conditions of Risk

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  • Cheung, Stephen L.

Abstract

Andreoni and Sprenger (2012) report evidence that distinct utility functions govern choices under certainty and risk. I investigate the robustness of this result to the experimental design. I find that the effect disappears completely when a multiple price list instrument is used instead of a convex time budget design. Alternatively, the effect is reduced by half when sooner and later payment risks are realized using a single lottery instead of two independent lotteries. The result is thus at least partially driven by intertemporal diversification, supporting an explanation in terms of concavity of the intertemporal, and not only atemporal, utility function.

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  • Cheung, Stephen L., 2013. "On the Elicitation of Time Preference under Conditions of Risk," Working Papers 2013-15, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2123/9362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan Laury & Melayne McInnes & J. Todd Swarthout, 2012. "Avoiding the curves: Direct elicitation of time preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 181-217, June.
    2. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    3. James Cox & Vjollca Sadiraj & Ulrich Schmidt, 2015. "Paradoxes and mechanisms for choice under risk," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 215-250, June.
    4. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3357-3376, December.
    5. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Estimating Time Preferences from Convex Budgets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3333-3356, December.
    6. Robin Cubitt & Daniel Read, 2007. "Can intertemporal choice experiments elicit time preferences for consumption?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(4), pages 369-389, December.
    7. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathaniel T. Wilcox, 2023. "Unusual Estimates of Probability Weighting Functions," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Models of Risk Preferences: Descriptive and Normative Challenges, volume 22, pages 69-106, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2015. "Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences: Balancing on a Budget Line: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2261-2271, July.
    3. Stephen L. Cheung, 2020. "Eliciting utility curvature in time preference," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 493-525, June.
    4. Schmidt, Ulrich, 2014. "Risk preferences may be time preferences: A comment on Andreoni and Sprenger (2012)," Kiel Working Papers 1942, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    multiple price list; convex time budget; risk and certainty; intertemporal choice;
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