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Prices over the Product Life Cycle: Implications for Quality-Adjustment and the Measurement of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Melser

    (Moody's Economy.com)

  • Iqbal A. Syed

    (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales)

Abstract

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large US scanner data set on supermarket products and applying exible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance and at sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias underestimates the measurement of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Melser & Iqbal A. Syed, 2013. "Prices over the Product Life Cycle: Implications for Quality-Adjustment and the Measurement of Inflation," Discussion Papers 2013-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2013-26
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2013-26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abe, Naohito & Inakura, Noriko & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2017. "Effects of the Entry and Exit of Products on Price Indexes," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP17-2, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Abe, Naohito & Enda, Toshiki & Inakura, Noriko & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2015. "Effects of New Goods and Product Turnover on Price Indexes," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP15-2, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer price index (CPI); cost of living; matched-model index; quality change bias; sample rotation; scanner data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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