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The financial storms in Vietnam's transition economy: a reasoning on the 1991-2008 period

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Author Info

  • André Farber
  • Nguyen Huu Tu
  • Tran Tri Dung
  • Quan Hoang Vuong

Abstract

This study focuses on those substantial changes that characterize the shift of Vietnam’s macroeconomic structures and evolution of micro-structural interaction over an important period of 1991-2008. The results show that these events are completely distinct in terms of (i) Economic nature; (ii) Scale and depth of changes; (iii) Start and end results; and, (iv) Requirement for macroeconomic decisions. The study rejected a suspicion of similarity between the contagion of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and economic chaos in the first half of 2008 (starting from late 2007). The depth, economic settings of, and interconnection between macro choices and micro decisions have all grown up significantly, partly due to a much deeper level of integration of Vietnam into the world’s economy. On the one hand, this phenomenon gives rise to efficiency of macro level policies because the consideration of micro-structural factors within the framework has definitely become increasingly critical. On the other and, this is a unique opportunity for the macroeconomic mechanism of Vietnam to improve vastly, given the context in which the national economy entered an everchanging period under pressures of globalization and re-integration. The authors hope to also open up paths for further empirical verifications and to stress on the fact that macro policies will have, from now on, to be decided in line with changing micro-settings, which specify a market economy and decide the degree of success of any macroeconomic choices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 08-023.RS.

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Length: 29 p.
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by: Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB)
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:08-023

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Keywords: Financial system; inflation; economic growth; interest rate; exchange rate; FDI; FPI; banking sector; stock markets; monetary and fiscal policy; Vietnam.;

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References

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  1. Laurence Ball, 1993. "What determines the sacrifice ratio?," Working Papers 93-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  4. Quan Hoang Vuong, 2003. "Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium," Working Papers CEB 03-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
  6. Stanley Fischer & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Quan Hoang Vuong & Tran Tri Dung, 2009. "The Cultural Dimensions of the Vietnamese Private Entrepreneurship," Working Papers CEB 09-027.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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