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Incidence des crises financières : une analyse empirique à partir des pays émergents

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  • Mohamed Ben Abdallah

    ()
    (TEAM)

  • Kalidou Diallo

    ()
    (TEAM)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the incidence and the severity of monetary, banking and twins’ crisis on the growth and on the investment in emergent countries on the period of 1974-2000. Using dynamic panel approach, we find that crises, whatever their type, are generally followed by a substantial contraction of the economical activity. More specifically, monetary crises, in contrast to the banking ones, appear to have a more important impact on the economic growth than on the investment. On the other hand, twin crisis seems to have a greater impact than the two first ones. The sensibility analysis shows the robustness of our results.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2004/Bla04071.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla04071.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla04071

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Keywords: Financial crises; emerging economies; dynamic panel and economic growth;

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References

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  1. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
  2. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  3. Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
  5. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and policy," Working Paper 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
  9. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  12. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  14. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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