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Incidence des crises financières : une analyse empirique à partir des pays émergents

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  • Mohamed Ben Abdallah

    ()
    (TEAM)

  • Kalidou Diallo

    ()
    (TEAM)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the incidence and the severity of monetary, banking and twins’ crisis on the growth and on the investment in emergent countries on the period of 1974-2000. Using dynamic panel approach, we find that crises, whatever their type, are generally followed by a substantial contraction of the economical activity. More specifically, monetary crises, in contrast to the banking ones, appear to have a more important impact on the economic growth than on the investment. On the other hand, twin crisis seems to have a greater impact than the two first ones. The sensibility analysis shows the robustness of our results.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2004/Bla04071.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla04071.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla04071

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Keywords: Financial crises; emerging economies; dynamic panel and economic growth;

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  1. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
  4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1994. "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Lessons from the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  15. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  16. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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