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When economic growth is less than exponential

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  • Christian Groth
  • Karl-Josef Koch

    ()

  • Thomas M. Steger

Abstract

This paper argues that growth theory needs a more general notion of “regularity” than that of exponential growth. We suggest that paths along which the rate of decline of the growth rate is proportional to the growth rate itself deserve attention. This opens up for considering a richer set of parameter combinations than in standard growth models. And it avoids the usual oversimplistic dichotomy of either exponential growth or stagnation. Allowing zero population growth in three different growth models (the Jones R&D-based model, a learning-by-doing model, and an embodied technical change model) serves as illustrations that a continuum of “regular” growth processes fill the whole range between exponential growth and complete stagnation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht in its series Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge with number 129-09.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sie:siegen:129-09

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Keywords: Quasi-arithmetic growth; Regular growth; Semi-endogenous growth; Knife-edge restrictions; Learning by doing; Embodied technical change;

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References

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  1. Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
  2. Alvarez-Pelaez, Maria J. & Groth, Christian, 2005. "Too little or too much R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 437-456, February.
  3. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Fernando DEL RIO & Omar LICANDRO, 2002. "Embodied technological change learning-by-doing and the productivity slowdown," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  6. Jakub Growiec, 2009. "Knife-Edge Conditions in the Modeling of Long-Run Growth Regularities," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 68, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Hendrik Hakenes & Andreas Irmen, 2005. "On the Long-Run Evolution of Technological Knowledge," CESifo Working Paper Series 1483, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Geir B. Asheim & Wolfgang Buchholz & John M. Hartwick & Tapan Mitra & Cees A. Withagen, 2005. "Constant Savings Rates and Quasi-Arithmetic Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 1573, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1994. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," NBER Working Papers 4795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jakub Growiec, 2005. "Beyond the Linearity Critique: The Knife-Edge Assumption of Steady State Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0505003, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 2005.
  12. Mitra, Tapan, 1983. "Limits on Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 155-68, February.
  13. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111 Elsevier.
  14. John C. V. Pezzey, 2002. "Exact Measures of Income in a Hyperbolic Economy," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0203, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
  15. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  16. Lutz G. Arnold, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Jones R&D Growth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 143-152, January.
  17. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December.
  18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
  19. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030, September.
  20. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
  21. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Grossmann, Volker, 2009. "Entrepreneurial innovation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 602-613, December.
  2. Volker Grossmann, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Innovation and Sustained Long-run Growth without Weak or Strong Scale Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 2264, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Tom Holden, 2010. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Economics Series Working Papers 512, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2013. "Constant-utility paths in a resource-based economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 342-355.
  5. Christian Groth & Ronald Wendner, 2011. "Learning by Investing, Embodiment, and Speed of Convergence," EPRU Working Paper Series 2011-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2014. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 191-217, May.
  7. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1143-1154, December.
  8. Antonio Minniti & Carmelo Parello & Paul Segerstrom, 2013. "A Schumpeterian growth model with random quality improvements," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 755-791, March.
  9. Tom Holden, 2012. "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  10. Ronald Wendner & Christian Groth, 2012. "Embodied learning by investing and speed of convergence," Graz Economics Papers 2012-04, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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