Riots, Battles and Cycles
AbstractThis paper proposes a conceptual framework to investigate the impact of military conflicts on business cycles, as well as defense policies through enrolment mechanisms. Our framework is a variation of a Real Business Cycle model first proposed by Hercowitz and Sampson (1991) that admits explicit solutions. We extend and estimate the initial model on US data to account for specific shocks that destroy the stock of capital and that may be as large as desired. We consider two types of dynamics on the depreciation rate of capital: short-term shocks, that may be interpreted as riots and captured by a Moving Average specification, and mid-term shocks, that may be interpreted as wars and captured by a Markov Switching process. Destructions may be limited by publicly decided enrolment, which allows to question the goals defense policies should aim at. First our model reproduces usual business cycle facts. Second, it allows to characterize the macroeconomic dynamics after shocks on the depreciation rate of capital. Finally, it provides a simple framework to quantify the welfare effects of alternative (simple) defense technologies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 09-01.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2009
Date of revision: 05 Apr 2009
military policy; Real Business Cycle model; random coefficient autoregressive model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2009-01-24 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2009-01-24 (Risk Management)
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