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Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Alvaro Calzadilla
  • Tingju Zhu
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

  • Claudia Ringler

Abstract

Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-170.

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Length: 44 pages
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Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:170

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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Agriculture; Sub-Saharan Africa; Integrated Assessment Model;

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References

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  1. Michael Johnson & Peter Hazell & Ashok Gulati, 2003. "The Role of Intermediate Factor Markets in Asia's Green Revolution: Lessons for Africa?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1211-1216.
  2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Water Scarcity And The Impact Of Improved Irrigation Management: A Cge Analysis," Working Papers FNU-160, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2008.
  3. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  4. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  5. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Overcoming child malnutrition in developing countries: past achievements and future choices," 2020 vision discussion papers 30, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Hussain, Intizar & Hanjra, Munir, . "Irrigation and poverty alleviation: review of the empirical evidence," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) h034483, International Water Management Institute.
  7. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  8. Inocencio, Arlene & Kikuchi, Masao & Tonosaki, Manabu & Maruyama, Atsushi & Merrey, Douglas & Sally, Hilmy & de Jong, Ijsbrand, 2007. "Costs and performance of irrigation projects: A comparison of Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions," IWMI Research Reports H036214, International Water Management Institute.
  9. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
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Cited by:
  1. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard S.J. Tol, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture," Working Papers FNU-185, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2010.
  2. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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