Elements for a theory of financial risks
AbstractEstimating and controlling large risks has become one of the main concern of financial institutions. This requires the development of adequate statistical models and theoretical tools (which go beyond the traditionnal theories based on Gaussian statistics), and their practical implementation. Here we describe three interrelated aspects of this program: we first give a brief survey of the peculiar statistical properties of the empirical price fluctuations. We then review how an option pricing theory consistent with these statistical features can be constructed, and compared with real market prices for options. We finally argue that a true `microscopic' theory of price fluctuations (rather than a statistical model) would be most valuable for risk assessment. A simple Langevin-like equation is proposed, as a possible step in this direction.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management in its series Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive with number 500042.
Date of creation: Jun 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in `Order, Chance and Risk', Les Houches (March 1998), to be published by Springer/EDP Sciences
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2005-02-13 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2005-02-13 (Finance)
- NEP-HPE-2005-02-13 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2005-02-13 (Risk Management)
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