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Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Speculative Market with an Arbitrary Number of Generic Technical Trading Strategies

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Author Info
Giulio Bottazzi
Mikhail Anufriev () (Laboratory of Economic and Management Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

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Abstract

We consider a simple pure exchange economy with two assets, one riskless, yielding a constant return, and one risky, paying a stochastic dividend, and we assume trading to take place in discrete time inside an endogenous price formation setting. Traders demand for the risky asset is expressed as a fraction of their individual wealth and is based on future prices forecast obtained on the basis of past market history. We describe the evolution of price and wealth distribution in the general case where any number of heterogeneous traders is allowed to operate in the market and any smooth function which maps the infinite information set to the present investment choice is allowed as agent's trading strategy. We give a complete characterization of equilibria and derive stability conditions analyzing a dynamical system of arbitrary large dimension. We show that this system can only possess isolated generic equilibria where a single agent dominates the market and continuous manifolds of non-generic equilibria where many agents hold finite wealth shares. Irrespectively of agents number and of their behavior, we show that all possible equilibria returns belong to a one dimensional ``Equilibria Market Line''. Our general result extends previous contributions and allows a better understanding of the selection principle governing the asymptotic market dynamics

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 375.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:375

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Related research
Keywords: Asset pricing; Price and wealth dynamics; Optimal selection principle.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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  1. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Research Paper Series 56, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mikhail Anufriev & Giulio Bottazzi & Francesca Pancotto, 2004. "Price and Wealth Asymptotic Dynamics with CRRA Technical Trading Strategies," LEM Papers Series 2004/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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