Changes In Economy Or Changes In Economics?
AbstractThere are evidences that the actual global crisis affected the convergence process in EU. Generally, just new adhered countries were more affected by the actual crisis. Today all forecasts are suffering by uncertainty. Last time, economists, with their methods and models, are invoked for actual crisis, but real causes could be found in policymaker’s actions and in public opinion’s influence, as a rule focussed only on short or very short-term. However, the methods and predictive models that economists are using seem to be not adequate for the new situation, especially due to the large extension of the actual crisis, at its turn caused by the globalization phenomenon. For the post-crisis period, we are presenting some likely challenges both in the real economy and in economics. There are different opinions regarding how deep and how long the convergence process will be affected. Synthetically, the pessimistic authors are viewing the future economic dynamics as one of so-called L type or U type or W type. Coming from lessons supplied by standard economic growth theories (Ramsey model, Solow-Swan model, Mankiw, Romer, and Weil model, etc.) and by empirical evidences, we are considering the convergence in the level of income per capita as a result of structural changes in economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research with number 110824.
Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
convergence; structural changes; spatial distribution; inflation - interest rate - growth rate correlation;
Other versions of this item:
- A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
- Heijdra, Ben J., 2009. "Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199210695.
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