IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/v5y2008i1p91-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU

Author

Listed:
  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

Despite the multitude of models created, their predictions are often contradicted by the empirical data, so that investigating macroeconomic structural changes continues to be a challenge to economists. Based on empirical data from countries around the world, our study tries to estimate a generic long-run model for analysing structural changes along with the general process of economic development. Moreover, from such a methodology a specific “EU model” was derived. Among the results, the long-run dynamics of structural changes seems to converge within the EU-27; the remaining problem being how long the convergence period is. This study shows how some more detailed interpretations could be extracted from the simulation of the model by using 3D maps or contour plot in the case of the EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:91-101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_08/rjef1_08_7.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    4. Erik Canton & Bert Minne & Ate Nieuwenhuis & Bert Smid & Marc van der Steeg, 2005. "Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis," CPB Document 91, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-380, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucian-Liviu ALBU, 2011. "Structural Changes and Convergence in EU and in Adriatic-Balkans Region," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 32(1(41)), pages 78-96, June.
    2. ALBU Lucian-Liviu, 2011. "Changes In Economy Or Changes In Economics?," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 28-31.
    3. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2012. "A Model To Estimate The Effect Of Global Crisis On The Convergence Process In Eu," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, January.
    4. Sova, Robert & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Stanciu, Ion & Sova, Anamaria, 2009. "Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment in the New EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 42-51, June.
    5. Dumitru Miron & Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2010. "Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 27-35, February.
    6. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2013. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-69, June.
    7. Monica Adriana TEGLEDI, 2012. "Territorial support of macroeconomic processes and national priorities," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 463-469, May.
    8. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.
    9. Christophe Rault & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Trade Specialisation And Economic Convergence: Evidence From Two Eastern European Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp959, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    11. Dinu, Marin & Marinas, Marius-Corneliu & Socol, Cristian & Socol, Aura-Gabriela, 2014. "Testing the Endogeneity of Trade and Financial Integration and Sectoral Specialization in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 86-104, March.
    12. Dorin JULA & Nicolae-Marius JULA, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investments and Employment. Structural Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-44, June.
    13. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Gorun, Adrian, 2010. "Examples of New Macroeconomic Modelling and Simulation Techniques: How They Could Improve Decisions and Public Perception," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 7-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucian-Liviu ALBU, 2011. "Structural Changes and Convergence in EU and in Adriatic-Balkans Region," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 32(1(41)), pages 78-96, June.
    2. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Liu, Tung & Li, Kui-Wai, 2006. "Disparity in factor contributions between coastal and inner provinces in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 449-470.
    4. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    5. Carolina Arteaga Cabrales, 2011. "Human Capital Externalities and Growth," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 12-47, December.
    6. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    7. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    8. Hong Li & Zinan Liu & Ivonia Rebelo, 1998. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-132, May.
    9. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth(I): Introduction to the Literature and Neoclassical Models," NBER Working Papers 3563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrew T. Young & Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2004. "Heterogeneity in Convergence Rates and Income Determination across U.S. States: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2004-1, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    12. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    14. Voxi Heinrich S Amavilah & Richard T. Newcomb, 2004. "Economic Growth and the Financial Economics of Capital Accumulation under Shifting Technological Change," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Arroyo, Santiago & Bustamante, Christian, 2009. "Dimensión Territorial como Factor del Desarrollo Económico: Algunos Aportes Metodológicos para su Medición [Territorial Dimension like Factor of Economic Development: Some Contributions Methodologi," MPRA Paper 24394, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2009.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 1994. "Democracy & Growth," NBER Working Papers 4909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aghion, Philippe, 2002. "Les défis d’une nouvelle théorie de la croissance," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(4), pages 459-486, Décembre.
    18. Jie Li & Robert Ayres, 2008. "Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 1-36, May.
    19. Neri, F., 2001. "Schooling Quality and Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers wp01-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Testing for output convergence: a re-examination," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 45-63, January.
    21. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2005. "Solow and the Native Americans: Technological Residuals and the Economic Performance of U.S. Native American Economies," Development and Comp Systems 0505008, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural changes; non-linear model; asymptotical trajectory; stages of economic development.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:91-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.