Regional Economic Voting In Romania
AbstractIn the paper we examine the economic voting theory for the Romanian local elections in June, 2008. Econometrically, we demonstrate that in the regional structures the main economic variables (dynamics of the gross domestic product per capita, rate of unemployment, dynamics of the average net nominal monthly earnings, etc.) do not significantly influence the voting behaviour, so that a model based on the esponsibility hypothesis is not adequate for explaining the creation of voting preferences in the Romanian regional structures in the June 2008 elections. We also demonstrate that for the June 2008 local elections the hypothesis of partisan voting cannot be econometrically supported. As a consequence, we have conceived a political impact model. Therefore, we have tested the hypothesis of faithful voters between two consecutive electoral moments, the engine role played by the well-known leaders, and the impact of the ethnic behaviour on the electoral space of the political party.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
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Political Business Cycles; Vote Popularity Function; Partisan and/or Opportunistic Behaviour; Residuals in Regional Econometric Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
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- Dorin Jula & Nicolae-Marius Jula, 2011. "Analysis of Municipal Election Outcomes in Romania," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1256, European Regional Science Association.
- Nicolae Marius Jula, 2012. "Modelling Of Voting Behaviour In Romania," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING & "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 121-139, January.
- Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2013. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-69, June.
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