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Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania

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Author Info

  • Dumitru Miron

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Alina Mihaela Dima

    ()
    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Simona Vasilache

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of trade between Romania and EU (export and imports) on sustainable development (defined through the following ratios: GDP growth and employment level) using dynamic forecasting and vector auto-regression (VAR) methods. Logistic regression forecasts the evolution of the GDP based on the evolution of exports and imports in the light of the Lisbon agenda, and the time horizon of 2010. Using data regarding intra-regional trade, the model may predict the GDP evolution, and, consequently, the economic sustainable development in Romania, as a new member of European Union.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.

Volume (Year): 12 (2010)
Issue (Month): 27 (February)
Pages: 27-35

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Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:12:y:2010:i:27:p:27-35

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Related research

Keywords: sustainable development intra-regional trade; economic integration; regression; model;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. B. Wooster, Rossitza & Dube, Smile, 2008. "The Contribution of Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional Trade to Growth: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 161-182.
  3. Christophe Rault & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Trade Specialisation And Economic Convergence: Evidence From Two Eastern European Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp959, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Peter Egger, 2006. "Intermediate goods trade and international wage convergence in Central Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 181-192, September.
  5. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Armenia Androniceanu & Irina-Virginia Drăgulănescu, 2012. "Sustainability of the Organizational Changes in the Context of Global Economic Crisis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(32), pages 365-379, June.

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