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Coarse Contingencies

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  • Larry Epstein

    ()
    (University of Rochester)

  • Massimo Marinacci

    ()
    (Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata, Università di Torino, Italy)

Abstract

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware that these contingencies are coarse - they leave out some details that may affect outcomes. Though she may not be able to describe these finer details, she is aware that they exist and this may affect her behavior.

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File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_515.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 515.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:515

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Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.

Related research

Keywords: uncertainty; coarse contingencies; unforeseen contingencies; subjective states; flexibility; ambiguity;

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References

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  1. Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 891-934, July.
  2. Mukerji, Sujoy, 1998. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1207-31, December.
  3. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  6. Haluk Ergin & Todd Sarver, 2010. "A Unique Costly Contemplation Representation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1285-1339, 07.
  7. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1999. "Unforeseen Contingencies and Incomplete Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 83-114, January.
  8. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  9. Mukerji, S., 1995. "Understanding the nonadditive probability decision model," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton 9517, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  11. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  12. Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-77, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Larry Epstein & Igor Kopylov, 2006. "Cognitive Dissonance and Choice," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 525, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Marie-Louise Vierø, 2006. "Exactly What Happens After the Anscombe-Aumann Race? Representing Preferences in Vague Environments," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 1094, Queen's University, Department of Economics.

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