This paper derives a representation of preferences for a choice theory with vague environments; vague in the sense that the agent does not know the precise probability distributions over outcomes conditional on states. Instead, he knows only a possible set of these probabilities for each state. Thus, the paper relaxes an assumption about the environment, which is done while maintaining the independence axiom. The behavior implied by this model is different from both the behavior implied by standard subjective expected utility models and the behavior implied by ambiguity aversion models. To illustrate these differences and the importance of allowing for vagueness, the consequences of the developed theory for a simple contracting problem are considered. The paper also provides a defense of the independence axiom against the usual Ellsberg critique.
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
1094.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Larry Epstein & Massimo Marinacci, 2005.
"Coarse Contingencies,"
RCER Working Papers
515, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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