IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/uncgec/2011_013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economics of Peak Oil

Author

Listed:
  • Holland, Stephen

    (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)

Abstract

“Peak oil” refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and to the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The peak oil literature typically rejects economic analysis. This chapter, following Holland (2008), argues that economic analysis is indeed appropriate for analyzing oil scarcity since standard economic models can replicate the observed peaks in oil production. Moreover, the emphasis on peak oil is misplaced since peaking is not a good indicator of scarcity, peak oil techniques are overly simplistic, the catastrophes predicted by the peak oil literature are unlikely, and the literature does not contribute to correcting identified market failures. Efficiency of oil markets could be improved by instead focusing on remedying market failures such as excessive private discount rates, environmental externalities, market power, insufficient innovation incentives, incomplete futures markets, and insecure property rights.

Suggested Citation

  • Holland, Stephen, 2011. "The Economics of Peak Oil," UNCG Economics Working Papers 11-13, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:uncgec:2011_013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bryan.uncg.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/11-13.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Gardner M, Jr & Field, Barry C, 1978. "Implications of Alternative Measures of Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 229-243, April.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    3. Stephen P. Holland, 2008. "Modeling Peak Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 61-80.
    4. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    5. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Taking peak oil seriously
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-09-02 19:44:00

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    2. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    3. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    4. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "An Empirical Dynamic Model of OPEC and Non-OPEC," Working Papers 225895, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    7. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-01, Resources for the Future.
    8. Jean-Pierre Amigues & Michel Moreaux & Nguyen Manh-Hung, 2019. "The Fossil Energy Interlude: Optimal Building, Maintaining and Scraping a Dedicated Capital, and the Hotelling Rule," Working Papers 2019.07, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    9. Gronwald, Marc, 2012. "A characterization of oil price behavior — Evidence from jump models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1310-1317.
    10. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Roberto Ferreira da Cunha & Antoine Missemer, 2020. "The Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics: A reassessment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 800-820, May.
    12. Anthony J. Venables, 2014. "Depletion and Development: Natural Resource Supply with Endogenous Field Opening," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 313-336.
    13. Antonio RIBBA, 2010. "Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade," EcoMod2010 259600141, EcoMod.
    14. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kharitonova, M. & Mikhailov, A. & Matsko, N., 2013. "Influence of the time factor on the availability of deposits of nonferrous metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 490-495.
    16. Siebert, Horst, 1981. "Ökonomische Theorie natürlicher Ressourcen: Ein Überblick," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3576, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2013. "Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 532-541.
    18. Robert S. Pindyck, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303.
    19. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "Scarcity rents and the returns to mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-49, March.
    20. Beatrix Gaitan & Terry Roe, 2012. "International Trade, Exhaustible-Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 72-93, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Depletable resources; Hotelling; peak oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:uncgec:2011_013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Albert Link (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edncgus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.