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Depletion and Development: Natural resource supply with endogenous field opening

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  • Anthony J. Venables

Abstract

This paper develops a model in which supply of a non-renewable resource can adjust through two margins: the rate of depletion and the rate of field opening. Faster depletion of existing fields means that less of the resource can ultimately be extracted, and optimal depletion of open fields follows a (modified) Hotelling rule. Opening a new field involves sinking a capital cost, and the timing of field opening is chosen to maximize the present value of the field. Output dynamics depend on both depletion and field opening, and supply responses to price changes are studied. In contrast to Hotelling, the long run equilibrium rate of growth of prices is independent of the rate of interest, depending instead on characteristics of demand and geologically determined supply.

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Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 062.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:062

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Keywords: natural resource; depletion; Hotelling; fossil fuel; carbon tax;

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  1. John Hartwick & Murray Kemp & Ngo van Long, 1980. "Set-up Costs and Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 412, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Amigues, J.-P. & Favard, P. & Gaudet, G. & Moreaux, M., 1996. "On The Optimal Order of Natural Resourse Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute is Limited," Papers 96.431, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2007. "Public Policies against Global Warming," NBER Working Papers 13454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Holland, Stephen P., 2003. "Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 539-556, November.
  5. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2002. "Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 301-325, November.
  6. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
  7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
  8. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Moreaux, Michel & Tidball, Mabel, 2006. "Ordering the Extraction of Polluting Nonrenewable Resources," IDEI Working Papers 415, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  9. Nystad, Arild N., 1987. "Rate sensitivity and the optimal choice of production capacity of petroleum reservoirs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 37-45, January.
  10. Lewis, Tracy R, 1982. "Sufficient Conditions for Extracting Least Cost Resource First," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1081-83, July.
  11. Fischer, Carolyn & Laxminarayan, Ramanan, 2005. "Sequential development and exploitation of an exhaustible resource: do monopoly rights promote conservation?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 500-515, May.
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