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Graphing And Measuring COVID’s First Wave Impact On The Bolivian Economy

Author

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  • Barja, Gover

    (Director of the Master’s Program in Public Policy and Administration, Maestrías para el Desarrollo, Universidad Católica Boliviana “San Pablo”)

Abstract

The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of Covid’s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first Covid wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Break[1]down into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC) de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo".

Suggested Citation

  • Barja, Gover, 2021. "Graphing And Measuring COVID’s First Wave Impact On The Bolivian Economy," Documentos de trabajo 4/2021, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2021_004
    as

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    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/assets_iisec/publicacion/202104.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Interrupted time series analysis; ARMA-GARCH models; Bolivia; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Economicas; IISEC.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts

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