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Globalization Threatens One Quarter of Finnish Employment

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  • Tuhkuri, Joonas

Abstract

We find that one quarter of Finnish employment is highly susceptible to offshoring in the next decade. That is, one in four jobs are easy to move abroad. The share is large. Offshorable workers are often highly educated. And innovators are particularly offshorable. In international comparison, our findings for Finland are similar to those in Sweden and in the United States. But the estimated threat of globalization through offshoring does not imply future mass unemployment. Jobs that are estimated to be easy to offshore will not necessarily move abroad. And even if they are, we may invent new jobs. The task content of current jobs may change, and the future mix of occupations may be different. But our findings do suggest that offshoring will change how we work.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Globalization Threatens One Quarter of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:briefs:46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri & Ekeland, Anders, 2015. "Computerization Threatens One-Third of Finnish and Norwegian Employment," ETLA Brief 34, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
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    5. Kent Eliasson & Pär Hansson, 2016. "Are workers more vulnerable in tradable industries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 283-320, May.
    6. Jagdish Bhagwati & Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "Offshoring of American Jobs: What Response from U.S. Economic Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013320 edited by Benjamin M. Friedman, December.
    7. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    8. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    9. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    11. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2013. "Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 97-128.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Heikkilä, Jussi & Lööf, Hans & Martinsuo, Miia & Mohammadi, Ali & Olhager, Jan & Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri & Tuhkuri, Joonas, . "International Sourcing in Finland and Sweden," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 275.

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