IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-frsc-dp-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model

Author

Listed:
  • Krupnick, Alan

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Taylor, Michael
  • Batz, Michael

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Hoffmann, Sandra

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Tick, Jody
  • Morris, Glenn
  • Sherman, Diane

Abstract

In order to help facilitate a risk-based food safety system, we developed the Foodborne Illness Risk Ranking Model (FIRRM), a decisionmaking tool that quantifies and compares the relative burden to society of 28 foodborne pathogens. FIRRM estimates the annual number of cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities caused by each foodborne pathogen, subsequently estimates the economic costs and QALY losses of these illnesses, and, lastly, attributes these pathogen-specific illnesses and costs to categories of food vehicles, based on outbreak data and expert judgment. The model ranks pathogen-food combinations according to five measures of societal burden. FIRRM incorporates probabilistic uncertainty within a Monte Carlo simulation framework and produces confidence intervals and statistics for all outputs. Gaps in data, most importantly in regards to food attribution and the statistical uncertainty of incidence estimates, currently limit the utility of the model. Once we address these and other problems, however, FIRRM will be a robust and useful decisionmaking tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Krupnick, Alan & Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Hoffmann, Sandra & Tick, Jody & Morris, Glenn & Sherman, Diane, 2004. "Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model," RFF Working Paper Series dp-frsc-dp-01, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-frsc-dp-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/FRSC-DP-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Alberini & Maureen Cropper & Alan Krupnick & Nathalie Simon, 2006. "Willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions: Does latency matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 231-245, May.
    2. Janusz R. Mrozek & Laura O. Taylor, 2002. "What determines the value of life? a meta-analysis," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 253-270.
    3. Buzby, Jean C. & Roberts, Tanya & Lin, Chung-Tung Jordan & MacDonald, James M., 1996. "Bacterial Foodborne Disease: Medical Costs and Productivity Losses," Agricultural Economic Reports 33991, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Viscusi, W Kip, 1993. "The Value of Risks to Life and Health," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1912-1946, December.
    5. Krupnick, Alan & Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron & Heintzelman, Martin, 2002. "Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 161-186, March.
    6. W Furlong & D Feeny & G Torrance & C Goldsmith & S DePauw & Z Zhu & M Denton & M Boyle, 1998. "Multiplicative Multi-Attribute Utility Function for the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) System: A Technical Report," Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series 1998-11, Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis (CHEPA), McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
    7. Frenzen, Paul D. & Riggs, T. Lynn & Buzby, Jean C. & Breuer, Thomas & Roberts, Tanya & Voetsch, Drew & Reddy, Sudha & FoodNet Working Group, 1999. "Salmonella Cost Estimate Updated Using FoodNet Data," Food Review/ National Food Review, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 22(2), May.
    8. Landefeld, J.S. & Seskin, E.P., 1982. "The economic value of life: linking theory to practice," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 72(6), pages 555-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Tauxe, Robert & Morris, Glenn & Doyle, Michael & Painter, John & Singh, Ruby & Lo Fo Wong, Danilo, 2004. "Linking Illness to Food: Summary of a Workshop on Food Attribution," RFF Working Paper Series dp-fsrc-dp-02, Resources for the Future.
    2. Juliana Martins Ruzante & Valerie J. Davidson & Julie Caswell & Aamir Fazil & John A. L. Cranfield & Spencer J. Henson & Sven M. Anders & Claudia Schmidt & Jeffrey M. Farber, 2010. "A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 724-742, May.
    3. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1317-1335, September.
    4. Caswell, Julie A., 2008. "Expanding the Focus of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Food Safety: A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Approach," Working Paper Series 42131, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    5. Marie‐Josée J. Mangen & Michael B. Batz & Annemarie Käsbohrer & Tine Hald & J. Glenn Morris & Michael Taylor & Arie H. Havelaar, 2010. "Integrated Approaches for the Public Health Prioritization of Foodborne and Zoonotic Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 782-797, May.
    6. Pitter, János G. & Jóźwiak, Ákos & Martos, Éva & Kaló, Zoltán & Vokó, Zoltán, 2015. "Next steps to evidence-based food safety risk analysis: opportunities for health technology assessment methodology implementation," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 117(3), pages 1-7, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Taylor, Michael R. & Morris, Joe & Krupnick, Alan J. & Batz, Michael B., 2004. "Identifying The Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Risks To Public Health: A New Risk-Ranking Model," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20291, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Cameron, Trudy Ann & DeShazo, J.R., 2013. "Demand for health risk reductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 87-109.
    3. Henrik Andersson & Nicolas Treich, 2011. "The Value of a Statistical Life," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Robert L. Herrick & Steven G. Buchberger & Robert M. Clark & Margaret Kupferle & Regan Murray & Paul Succop, 2012. "A Markov Model To Estimate Salmonella Morbidity, Mortality, Illness Duration, And Cost," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1169-1182, October.
    5. Grisolía, José M. & Longo, Alberto & Hutchinson, George & Kee, Frank, 2018. "Comparing mortality risk reduction, life expectancy gains, and probability of achieving full life span, as alternatives for presenting CVD mortality risk reduction: A discrete choice study of framing ," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 164-174.
    6. Strand.J., 2001. "Public- and private-good values of statistical lives : results from a combined choice-experiment and contingent-valuation survey," Memorandum 31/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. James K. Hammitt, 2002. "QALYs Versus WTP," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(5), pages 985-1001, October.
    8. Henry A. Roman & James K. Hammitt & Tyra L. Walsh & David M. Stieb, 2012. "Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2133-2151, December.
    9. Dionne, Georges & Lebeau, Martin, 2010. "Le calcul de la valeur statistique d’une vie humaine," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(4), pages 487-530, décembre.
    10. Smith, V. Kerry & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Van Houtven, George L., 2006. "Structural benefit transfer: An example using VSL estimates," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 361-371, December.
    11. Revesz, Richard & Stavins, Robert, 2004. "Environmental Law and Policy," Working Paper Series rwp04-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Anna Alberini & Stefania Tonin & Margherita Turvani, 2009. "The Value of Reducing Cancer Risks at Contaminated Sites: Are More Heavily Exposed People Willing to Pay More?," Working Papers 2009.60, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Milan Ščasný & Anna Alberini, 2012. "Valuation of Mortality Risk Attributable to Climate Change: Investigating the Effect of Survey Administration Modes on a VSL," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Cifuentes, Luis A. & Krupnick, Alan J. & O'Ryan, Raúl & Toman, Michael, 2005. "Urban Air Quality and Human Health in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2988, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Stefania Tonin & Anna Alberini & Margherita Turvani, 2012. "The Value of Reducing Cancer Risks at Contaminated Sites: Are More Knowledgeable People Willing to Pay More?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(7), pages 1157-1182, July.
    16. Groot, Wim & Maassen van den Brink, Henriette, 2007. "The health effects of education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 186-200, April.
    17. James Hammitt & Jin-Tan Liu, 2004. "Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 73-95, January.
    18. Henrik Andersson & James Hammitt & Gunnar Lindberg & Kristian Sundström, 2013. "Willingness to Pay and Sensitivity to Time Framing: A Theoretical Analysis and an Application on Car Safety," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(3), pages 437-456, November.
    19. Golan, Elise H. & Ralston, Katherine L. & Frenzen, Paul D., 1998. "A Distributional Analysis Of The Costs Of Foodborne Illness: Who Ultimately Pays?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-13, July.
    20. Chanel, Olivier & Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2013. "Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-205.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foodborne illness; risk ranking; pathogens; health valuation; QALYs; cost of illness; uncertainty; modeling; Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-frsc-dp-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.