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Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model

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Author Info
Krupnick, Alan () (Resources for the Future)
Taylor, Michael
Batz, Michael () (Resources for the Future)
Hoffmann, Sandra () (Resources for the Future)
Tick, Jody
Morris, Glenn
Sherman, Diane

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Abstract

In order to help facilitate a risk-based food safety system, we developed the Foodborne Illness Risk Ranking Model (FIRRM), a decisionmaking tool that quantifies and compares the relative burden to society of 28 foodborne pathogens. FIRRM estimates the annual number of cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities caused by each foodborne pathogen, subsequently estimates the economic costs and QALY losses of these illnesses, and, lastly, attributes these pathogen-specific illnesses and costs to categories of food vehicles, based on outbreak data and expert judgment. The model ranks pathogen-food combinations according to five measures of societal burden. FIRRM incorporates probabilistic uncertainty within a Monte Carlo simulation framework and produces confidence intervals and statistics for all outputs. Gaps in data, most importantly in regards to food attribution and the statistical uncertainty of incidence estimates, currently limit the utility of the model. Once we address these and other problems, however, FIRRM will be a robust and useful decisionmaking tool.

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Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-frsc-dp-01.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-frsc-dp-01

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Related research
Keywords: foodborne illness; risk ranking; pathogens; health valuation; QALYs; cost of illness; uncertainty; modeling; Monte Carlo;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Buzby, Jean C. & Roberts, Tanya & Lin, C.-T. Jordan & MacDonald, James M., 1996. "Bacterial Foodborne Disease: Medical Costs and Productivity Losses," Agricultural Economics Reports 33991, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. [Downloadable!]
  2. Viscusi, W Kip, 1993. "The Value of Risks to Life and Health," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1912-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Krupnick, Alan & Cropper, Maureen & Alberini, Anna & Heintzelman, Martin & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron, 2000. "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Discussion Papers dp-00-37, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Tauxe, Robert & Morris, Glenn & Doyle, Michael & Painter, John & Singh, Ruby & Lo Fo Wong, Danilo, 2004. "Linking Illness to Food: Summary of a Workshop on Food Attribution," Discussion Papers dp-fsrc-dp-02, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julie A. Caswell, 2008. "Expanding the Focus of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Food Safety: A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Approach," Working Papers 2008-8, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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