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Pollution Permits and the Evolution of Market Structure

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  • Stephen P. Ryan

    (MIT)

  • Mar Reguant

    (MIT)

  • Meredith Fowlie

    (UC-Berkeley)

Abstract

We explore the long run dynamic implications of subjecting an imperfectly competitive industry to market-based pollution regulation. We are particularly interested in understanding how the allocation of emissions permits in a cap-and-trade program can influence the evolution of a trade exposed oligopolistic industry. Using two decades of panel data on the US Portland cement industry, we estimate a fully dynamic model of firms’ strategic entry, exit, production, and investment decisions. We then use the model to simulate counterfactual outcomes under three general classes of allocation regimes: auctioning, grandfathering, and contingent updating. We find that the dynamic evolution of market structure can vary significantly across the policy scenarios we consider. We quantify the overall costs of achieving desired emissions reductions and the distribution of those costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 1440.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1440

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  1. Stephen Ryan, 2005. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Working Papers 0510, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  2. Bushnell, James & Mansur, Erin T. & Saravia, Celeste, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured U.S. Electricity Markets," Staff General Research Papers 13130, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. James B. Bushnell & Yihsu Chen, 2009. "Regulation, Allocation, and Leakage in Cap-and-Trade Markets for CO2," NBER Working Papers 15495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Neuhoff, K. & Grubb, M. & Keats, K., 2005. "Impact of the allowance allocation on prices and efficiency," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0552, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Jans, Ivette & Rosenbaum, David I., 1997. "Multimarket contact and pricing: Evidence from the U.S. cement industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 391-412, May.
  6. Steven L. Puller, 2007. "Pricing and Firm Conduct in California's Deregulated Electricity Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 75-87, February.
  7. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
  8. Daniel L. Millimet & Santanu Roy & Aditi Sengupta, 2009. "Environmental Regulations and Economic Activity: Influence on Market Structure," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 99-118, 09.
  9. Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2007. "Multidimensional Spline Interpolation: Theory and Applications," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 153-169, September.
  10. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
  11. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
  12. Hugo Benitez-Silva & John Rust & Gunter Hitsch & Giorgio Pauletto & George Hall, 2000. "A Comparison Of Discrete And Parametric Methods For Continuous-State Dynamic Programming Problems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 24, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Damien Demailly & Philippe Quirion, 2006. "CO2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under the EU ETS: Grandfathering vs. output-based allocation," Post-Print halshs-00639327, HAL.
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Cited by:
  1. Panle Jia Barwick & Parag A. Pathak, 2011. "The Costs of Free Entry: An Empirical Study of Real Estate Agents in Greater Boston," NBER Working Papers 17227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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