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Production Under Uncertainty: A Simulation Study

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  • S.Shankar

    ()

  • C.J. O’Donnell

    ()
    (CEPA - School of Economics, The University of Queensland)

  • John Quiggin

    ()
    (CEPA - School of Economics, The University of Queensland)

Abstract

In this article we model production technology in a state-contingent framework. Our model analyzes production under uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. In our model producers? risk preferences are captured by the risk-neutral probabilities they assign to the different states of nature. Using a state-general state-contingent specification of technology we show that rational producers who encounter the same stochastic technology can make significantly different production choices. Further, we develop an econometric methodology to estimate the risk-neutral probabilities and the parameters of stochastic technology when there are two states of nature and only one of which is observed. Finally, we simulate data based on our state-general state-contingent specification of technology. Biased estimates of the technology parameters are obtained when we apply conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator on the simulated data.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series CEPA Working Papers Series with number WP052010.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqcepa:51

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  1. Christopher O’Donnell & Robert Chambers & John Quiggin, 2010. "Efficiency analysis in the presence of uncertainty," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-17, February.
  2. C. J. O'Donnell & W. E. Griffiths, 2006. "Estimating State-Contingent Production Frontiers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 249-266.
  3. Jean-Paul Chavas, 2008. "A Cost Approach to Economic Analysis Under State-Contingent Production Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 435-466.
  4. Powell, Alan A. & Gruen, Fred H.G., 1967. "The Estimation Of Production Frontiers: The Australian Livestock/Cereals Complex," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 11(01), June.
  5. Svend Rasmussen, 2003. "Criteria for optimal production under uncertainty. The state-contingent approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), pages 447-476, December.
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