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Who Gains the Most in Preferential Trade Agreements?

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Abstract

Using recent extensive data of bilateral trade in manufacturing, we study the relations between trade flows, each country’s technological levels, and geographic barriers. Then, we calibrate the equilibrium of a general equilibrium model to explore how a Trans-Pacific Partnership affects each country’s welfare and trade flows. We decompose the total change of trade flows from member countries into income effects and substitution effects, and investigate the factors that affect trade flows. We demonstrate that a positive coalition externality could exist in that some nonmember countries could gain more than member countries and further investigate under which circumstances it arises.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Discussion Papers Series with number 475.

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Date of creation: 17 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:475

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  1. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  4. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Burbidge, John B. & James A. DePater & Gordon M. Meyers & Abhijit Sengupta, 1997. "A Coalition-Formation Approach to Equilibrium Federations and Trading Blocs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 940-56, December.
  6. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  7. Helpman, Elhanan & Antras, Pol & Aghion, Philippe, 2007. "Negotiating Free Trade," Scholarly Articles 3351239, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2009. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," NBER Working Papers 15628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  10. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Juyoung Cheong & Shino Takayama & Terence Yeo, 2013. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Welfare: General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers Series 482, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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