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Core inflation at the Bank of Canada: A critique

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Author Info
Kevin Clinton () (Queen's University)

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Abstract

Core inflation is a useful concept for the theory and practice of monetary policy. The Bank of Canada maintains, in addition, that core inflation should be, and has in fact been, a useful predictor of headline inflation. Under the bank's policy of inflation targeting, however, this is incorrect: over horizons of a year or more the best forecast should be the 2 percent target; and core inflation should have no predictive content. Post-1995 evidence confirms this argument.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1077.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1077.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1077

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Keywords: TBA

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nicholas Rowe, 2002. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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