External impacts on the property-liability insurance cycle
Abstract
Traditionally, underwriting performance is considered to be a function of industry-specific institutions. Using quarterly data from 1974 through 1990, we provide evidence of a long-run link between the general economy and the underwriting performance as measured by the combined ratio. Using cointegration techniques, we estimate the long-run relationship between the general economy as measured by real gross domestic product, the short-term interest rate, and inflation. We then estimate the short-run link between the industry and the general economy using vector auto-regression technniques and find that, although the property-liability insurance industry is linked to the long-run performance of the national economy, short-run shocks in economic variables have little effect on the combined ratio.Download Info
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9825.Length:
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Journal of Risk and Insurance No. 4.Vol. 6(1995): pp. 738-754
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9825
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Related research
Keywords: combined ratio; underwriting performance; vector autoregression; impulse response;Other versions of this item:
- Grace, M. F. & J. L. Hotchkiss, 1993. "External Impacts on the Property-Liability Insurance Cycle," Working Papers 020, Risk and Insurance Archive, revised Feb 1995.
- M. F. Grace & J. L. Hotchkiss, 1994. "External Impacts on the Property-Liability Insurance Cycle," Risk and Insurance 9407002, EconWPA.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Smith, Michael L, 1989. "Investment Returns and Yields to Holders of Insurance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 81-98, January.
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- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, July.
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- Janice L. Boucher, 1991. "Stationary representations, cointegration, and rational expectations with an application to the forward foreign exchange market," Working Paper 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-38, October.
- Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
- Feng Guo & Hung-Gay Fung & Ying Huang, 2009. "The Dynamic Impact of Macro Shocks on Insurance Premiums," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 225-244, June.
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